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MLB Rumors: Mark Attanasio Not Confident in Club’s Ability to Re-Sign Zack Greinke
Coming into the All-Star break, word on the street was that the Milwaukee Brewers weren’t likely to re-sign star right-hander Zack Greinke to a contract extension. The fact that the unrestricted free agent to-be had not come to terms on a multi-year contract lengthener with the club early in the season said to many that he had doubts about staying in Milwaukee, and that he probably had an interesting in weighing his options as a free-agent this winter.
Now, it appears that Milwaukee’s odds of bringing back the former Cy Young award winner have actually worsened.
Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Friday that he is not optimistic about signing Greinke to an extension prior to the July 31 trade deadline. In Attanasio’s own words:
“When players get this close [to free agency], there’s not many that will sign, at that level. He’s a difference-maker to a team that’s got a chance to go to the postseason. Unless you’re raising the bar, you usually go on the market.”
Of course, it should also be noted that general manager Doug Melvin told Haudricourt that his phone “isn’t ringing off the hook” with trade calls for Greinke.
Contrary to popular belief, #Brewers GM Doug Melvin said his phone isn't ringing off hook with calls on Zack Greinke. bit.ly/NDquRM
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Tom (@Haudricourt) July 12, 2012Milwaukee’s brass has made it known that the outcome of the next few series’ will be of extreme importance as to the club’s intentions in the trade market this month.
Just eight games out of the lead for the division, the Brewers are by no means out of the hunt for the division title. However, they are also by no means looking the part of a club who’s bound for the postseason, division champions or not.
Milwaukee will start the second half of their 2012 schedule with a three-game set versus the division-leading Pittsburgh Pirates at Miller Park immediately followed by another three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals at home. They then head to Cincinnati for a three-game set against the Reds, whom they have a 2-4 record against this season, scoring as many runs (22) as they have allowed (22).
- Update 7/14: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported Friday night that the Brewers are preparing to offer Greinke a contract extension supposedly worth $100 Million over five years, according to “a person familiar with their thinking”.
MLB Trade Rumors: What Other Brewers Should Milwaukee Consider Dealing?
The jury is out as to whether or not the Milwaukee Brewers will be buyers or sellers at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. However, if the first half of the season is any indication of how the second half might play out, there’s a decent chance general manager Doug Melvin will look to deal some of his most valuable trade chips in the coming weeks to try and restock for future seasons.
While Zack Greinke will likely continue to command the majority of trade interest this summer, there are a few other players who look to have at least some market value by the end of the month.
Who are these players and why on earth should the Brewers consider trading them? Let’s take a look.
George Kottaras
Why Milwaukee Could Trade Him: No room on roster with Jonathan Lucroy nearing return, attractive bat
Potential Suitors: N/A
Breakdown: Through no fault of his own, backup catcher George Kottaras has become an expendable asset this summer.
The injury to Jonathan Lucroy resulted in the promotion of 26-year-old veteran minor league catcher Martin Maldonado to the 25-man roster, whereupon he would seize the opportunity by flashing plus average defense and a solid approach at the plate, consequently keeping Kottaras in his same role. Now that Lucroy is nearly back, there’s really no place for the 29-year-old catcher on the roster.
While the Brewers could easily demote Kottaras to their Triple-A club in Nashville, it would make a lot of sense for management to consider what they could get through trading him. Kottaras has already harbored a 0.8 WAR rating, according to FanGraphs, which is what his entire 2011 campaign amounted to.
FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently confirmed that the Brewers are receiving calls for (among others) Kottaras, saying that he very much “remains trade bait” as the July 31 deadline nears. It should be interesting to see what Milwaukee would like in return for him; they can’t expect much dealing him alone. A package-type deal could be on the horizon.
Francisco Rodriguez
Why Milwaukee Could Trade Him: Burdensome contract, market value, severe under-performance
Potential Suitors: Mets
Breakdown: Once considered the gold standard of big-league closers, Francisco Rodriguez has performed far from what he once was as a 26-year-old fire-baller for the Los Angeles Angels. To that end, he has performed much worse this season compared to his time spent with Milwaukee in 2011.
Known for his strikeout capabilities on the mound, Rodriguez has garnered a strikeout rate of just 20.5 percent this season, down from 27.5 percent over 29 innings with the Brewers last season and noticeably lower than his career rate of 29.5 percent. Moreover, he’s struggled to command his pitches and that’s manifested itself in the form of a career-worst 1.47 WHIP. Couple that with a lofty 2012 salary, and it’s difficult to picture the Brewers drawing much trade interest for Rodriguez this summer.
Yet, that hasn’t exactly been the case. A person “familiar with the club’s thinking” told Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that Rodriguez is atop the New York Mets‘ trade wish-list this summer. Struggling to find consistency from relievers not named Frank Francisco, it makes a certain amount of sense that New York would want Rodriguez back. They could shift the hard-throwing Francisco to the setup role and drop Rodriguez into their closer’s role, where he believes he is much better suited to perform out of. That would then give them the formidable late-inning one-two punch they’ve been looking for.
Of course, such an acquisition might come at a hefty asking price. While the Brewers realize they probably won’t get much back in return for Rodriguez, it certainly doesn’t bode well for a potential deal that the Mets “won’t trade their best prospects for a bat or a reliever“. If that’s the case, then maybe Milwaukee would be better suited to keep him for the rest of the season.
Shaun Marcum
Why Milwaukee Could Trade Him: Market Value, Chance he won’t re-sign in offseason
Potential Suitors: Tigers, Royals,Red Sox, Rangers, Braves
Breakdown: Before hitting the 15-day disabled list with right elbow tightness—an injury that has sidelined him up to this point in the season—on June 15, Shaun Marcum performed exceptionally. In his 13 starts this year, Marcum averaged 6.1 innings per start and garnered a WAR of 1.3. Last season, he lasted a whole out less per start and posted a WAR of 2.7. If not for injury, he would have easily surpassed the 3.0 WAR plateau or just the second time in his career.
Consequently, its easy to understand why Marcum’s name began appearing in trade speculation toward the end of May and the early portion of June.
Probably the biggest rumor that had surfaced came from FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi, when he tweeted that the Detroit Tigers would at the very least be interested in acquiring Marcum if the Brewers were so inclined to trade him.
File this away: #Tigers were interested in Shaun Marcum during the offseason Milwaukee acquired him. Could be option if healthy.
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Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) June 30, 2012Detroit’s rotation hasn’t gotten enough production after Justin Verlander. The shaky combination of Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly and Doug Fister hasn’t gotten the job done in Mo-Town, so it makes sense for them to be interested in acquiring a guy like Marcum, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent at season’s end.
The Tigers have a few prospects that could entice Milwaukee into dealing the 30-year-old righty, as well. However, the longer Marcum remains on the disabled list, the less likely it will be for a deal to go through. It wouldn’t hurt for Melvin to at least consider trading him, though.
Aramis Ramirez
Why Milwaukee Could Trade Him: Inconsistencies, Newfound interest in trade market
Potential Suitors: Dodgers, others(?)
Breakdown: Signing Aramis Ramirez to a lucrative three-year contract this past winter, the Brewers probably had every intention of keeping the veteran third baseman through the end of the 2014 season. However, an abysmally slow start the season together with the fact that Milwaukee is headed toward selling rather than buying this summer, and the team’s original vision may be cast aside as the deadline nears.
According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Los Angeles Dodgers have identified Ramirez as a possible upgrade at the third base position. The following is the tweet he sent out on Thursday to the rest of his followers.
If Brewers decide to sell, Dodgers have identified Aramis Ramirez as possible 3B upgrade. Prefer Chase Headley, however.
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Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) July 12, 2012Jerry Hairston, Elian Herrera, Adam Kennedy and Juan Uribe have each tallied at least 141 plate appearances at third base for the Dodgers this season, together combining for a 1.8 WAR, if you go by FanGraphs‘ value distribution. Los Angeles’ brass must believe that adding a guy like Ramirez, who has a 2.4 WAR this season, would make for more stability in the lineup and moreover help out a healthy Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier in their second-half run.
Of course, the next big question now applies to what Milwaukee could get in return for Ramirez, who was brought in to protect Ryan Braun in the batting order prior to the season. If anything, management could be looking to add a few MLB-ready arms in preparation for next season, and the Dodgers have a few names who could entice, including 27-year-old Chad Billingsley and former Brewer Chris Capuano.
Minor League Notes: Toledo, Garman Promoted
There were a few promotions and rosters moves made down on the farm last night, according to a credible source.
Left-handed pitcher Brian Garman was promoted to double-A Huntsville while right-hander Tommy Toledo got the call to join high-A Brevard County. Garman, 23, posted a very nice 1.88 ERA over 38.1 innings pitched, striking out 46 batters during that same span. Toledo, also 23, harbored a 1.95 ERA and 0.88 WHIP as a late-inning reliever for low-A Wisconsin.
Breaking Down Rickie Weeks’ First-Half Snafu
Courtesy of Yahoo! Sports
Give yourself a firm pat on the back if you expected Rickie Weeks first-half to turn out the way it has, because odds are not too many did.
Fresh off a remarkable 2011 season where he was selected to start for the National League at second-base at the All-Star game in Phoenix, Arizona, Weeks came into spring training this season looking to prove two things: 1.) That his ankle sprain suffered on the final day of July last season would not in the slightest way hamper his production this season and, 2.) That his abysmal postseason performance would in no way perpetuate into his 2012 campaign.
But while Weeks has managed to stave off injury for what almost seems the first time of his nine-year stay in Milwaukee, it appears as though he has neglected the more important of his two aforementioned goals.
After posting a slash line of .260/.448/.440 while nearly walking (14) as many times as he did strikeout (18) in 22 spring training games earlier this year, Milwaukee’s 29-year-old second baseman has performed far from what any of us expected this season, and probably anything but what he himself expected.
Through the season’s first half, Weeks holds true to .199/.314/.343 line — by far and away career-worsts — in exactly 81 games, striking out (100) more than any other player in the National League and walking (45) in less than have of that same frequency. Traditionally known as a plus defender, Weeks has also garnered a .968 fielding percentage and -17 DRS (defensive runs saved) that both rank as career-worsts.
Whether it be his lack of plate discipline and subsequent poor strikeout rate (28.6%), palpable power regression at the plate or the inability to man his position at an adequate rate, it’s obvious that Weeks’ 2012 campaign has been a blunder of epic proportions. Just where have Weeks’ struggles stemmed from this season? As any fan would tell you, it all starts at the plate. More specifically, it starts out of the strike-zone.
While it’s true that Weeks’ plate discipline has looked nothing short of disastrous this season, he has, in some areas, been better at the plate compared to that of last season. FanGraphs cites that Weeks harbored a SwStr (swinging strike) rate of 11 percent last season; this year, that has decreased to 10.7%. Moreover, the site also reveals that his Z-Contact (the percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with inside the strike zone when swinging the bat) rate of 82.3 percent in 2011 is up to 82.9 percent this year. But that’s where most of the positives end.
As I alluded to earlier, Weeks’ struggles this season have in fact come outside of the strike-zone rather than in it. And they’re definitely worth breaking a sweat over.
FanGraphs states that in his 350 plate appearances this season, Weeks has harbored a career-worst contact rate of 72.4 percent, down from 74.1 percent last season and 78.4 percent in 2010, arguably his best season to-date. However, the site goes on to say that his O-Contact (the percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside the strike zone when swinging the bat) is down to a unthinkable 37.1 percent this season. Compared to his career O-Contact rate of 49.5 percent and his 2011 mark of 50.9 percent, its easy to see that Weeks just hasn’t been able to adjust to — or even make contact with — pitches out of the strike-zone.
To get a visual sense of how poorly Weeks has handled offerings out of the strike-zone this season, take a gander at the below graph (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus), which depicts his whiff (a.k.a. “swing and miss”) versus every pitch offered to him. The red blocks represent areas of the plate where Weeks has “swung and missed” the most this season.
Not surprisingly, almost every block shown to be outside of the strikezone is red, with most of them being at the bottom of the strike-zone. This usually says that a player struggles to hit breaking pitches or possibly even changeups; so it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Weeks has garnered a swing-and-miss rate of 14.6 percent against sliders, 17.8 percent against changeups and 8.8 against curveballs this season, according to Texas Leaguers.
Listen — you can break down Weeks’ first-half struggles as much as you want. You can look at his decrease in productivity at the plate, his obvious inability to hit pitches out of the strike-zone and get a visual sense of where he has the most trouble hitting pitches. But the fact is, Rickie Weeks just hasn’t been himself this season. And until he rekindles his discipline at the plate, the Brewers will continue to stay out of first place in the National League Central this summer.
Alec Dopp covers the Milwaukee Brewers as a featured columnist at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @alecdopp and read his blog, Brewers Rumors.
Updating Brewers’ Top 25 Prospects at the 2012 All-Star Break
With the All-Star break now upon us and Major League Baseball’s 2012 first-year player draft in the rear-view mirror, the natural inkling of many baseball fans is to check up on how well things are going down in the minors. If you’re a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers, it would behoove you to know that things are going very well this season down on the farm — at least much better than what was expected.
Coming into the season, the Brewers were noticeably dry on the farm despite a talented flock of youngsters from the 2011 draft itching to get their feet wet in professional ball. But after a strong 2012 class that saw general manager Doug Melvin add a few power bats early on, the Brewers are yet again proving that their scouting department is among the best in baseball and that they’re nearly recovered from the trade that put Zack Greinke in blue and gold back in the winter of 2010.
So in an effort to help satisfy your crave for Milwaukee’s top minor league youngsters while Ron Roenicke and company reboot for a second-half run, here is my updated top 25 prospects at mid-season.
25. Amaury Rivas
Signing on as a non-draft pick free agent way back in 2005, Rivas has now spent upwards of eight seasons in Milwaukee’s system. Having gone through Tommy John surgery, demotion and now conversion from starter to reliever all during that timespan, Rivas has had both extreme highs and lows thus far in his career.
Once thought to have the stuff of a back-line starter in the bigs following a stellar 2009 campaign, the now 26-year-old Dominican Republic native pitches exclusively out of the bullpen in Triple-A, and he hasn’t exactly flourished. He’s walked nearly as many batters as he’s struck out, posting a groundout-to-airout ratio of just 1.28 and a WHIP of 1.70.
Rivas throws a low-90s two-seam fastball that gets good movement and a mid-90s four-seamer that straightens out and gets crushed by opponents when left in the zone. His slider has been anything but a swing-and-miss pitch, as he’s struggled his whole career to command it. Rivas’ best pitch is his changeup, which Baseball America rated as the best pitch in the system after the 2009 and 2010 season. If he has any intention of sniffing the majors, he’ll need to develop his slider.
24. Santo Manzanillo
2012 Stats (Double-A): 12 G, 6.08 ERA, 5.90 FIP, 10 K/10 BB, .255 BAA (13.1 IP)
Brought into the organization as an extremely raw 16 year old from the Dominican ranks in 2006, Manzanillo struggled mightily with his command, walking a wholesome 47 batters over 16.1 innings in the Arizona Rookie League. His next two seasons in rookie ball were almost as unsightly, posting a WHIP of 1.97 over 27 appearances during that span.
Manzanillo then blew out his elbow prior to the 2009 season and underwent Tommy John surgery that cast a serious shadow of doubt over his career. However, he came back in 2010 and saw massive improvements with his command in low-A ball and then proceeded to crack Huntsville’s bullpen in double-A by the end of last season. Last year, he overpowered hitters with a strikeout rate of over 23 percent and notched 17 saves out of the closer role.
Stuff-wise, Manzanillo has what it takes to flourish out of a setup role. He utilizes a four-seam fastball that tops out in the mid-90s and has reportedly hit triple-digits on a few occasions. He complements it with an effective changeup and power slide to get hitters off balance. If he can continue to hone his pitches and ward off injury, he’ll have a bright future in Milwaukee for years to come.
23. Cody Scarpetta
2012 Stats: N/A (Injured)
Once a glistening prospect considered to be on the cusp of a big-league promotion at the end of last season, Scarpetta put on an abhorrent showing at the Arizona Fall League where he posted an ERA of 19.43 over just 7.1 innings of work. Things would only get worse from there, when doctors told him he would miss his entire 2012 season due to Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.
Still, Scarpetta is only 23 years old and has the stuff of a back-line MLB starter in a best-case scenario. He features a low to mid 90s fastball with some sink to it, a hard-breaking curveball that was nearly plus-average before his surgery and a changeup that improved massively as he progressed through the system. He generated a lot of strikeouts with these three pitches but was also markedly inconsistent command-wise, walking nearly five batters per nine innings pitched over the course of his professional career.
With the physique of a big-league innings eater and a determination to break through soon after his surgery, Scarpetta could still definitely offer value as a bullpen type for Milwaukee down the road. His future will rest heavily on his recovery from surgery and a refinement of his control.
22. Gregory Hopkins
2012 Stats (Low-A): 286 PA, .300/.323/.453, 24 XBH, 112 wRC+ (71 G)
A lifetime .339/.409/.515 hitter during his three seasons at St. John’s University, Hopkins was especially impressive during his 2010 junior campaign with the Red Storm, where his .358 BA topped that of Big East rivals George Springer and Mike Olt, both of whom are now considered consensus top-50 prospects in all of baseball. The Brewers got him as a mid-round pick that year, and it’s now looking like another huge steal for general manager Doug Melvin.
While he posted adequate numbers in rookie ball and the following season in low-A ball, he has been fairly impressive this season in low-A. With a .300/.323/.453 line though the first half, Hopkins has an outside shot to finish atop the organization in those three categories. If he could perpetuate those numbers in subsequent seasons, he would profile nicely at third base sometime down the road.
Right now, Hopkins simply needs to make sure his batting average stays above at least .285. He has the defensive skills and hard-working demeanor to play third base. His bat is the only thing keeping him from cracking Triple-A (yes, I said it) by the end of next season.
21. Kyle Heckathorn
2012 Stats (Double-A): 17 GS, 5.18 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 72 K/27 BB, .282 BAA (92 IP)
A three-year contributor to the Kennesaw State rotation, Heckathorn was heralded as one of the better right-handers of the 2009 draft class. He was a strikeout machine in college and that was a big reason the Brewers took him at 47th overall that year. Since then, however, he’s been anything but what Milwaukee drafted him for.
Finally making his way to double-A ball this season, Heckathorn has harbored a K/9 ratio of just 6.77 during his professional career. His sometimes plus-average control can compensate for his lack of strikeouts, which is what you would hope for considering he doesn’t have a true swing-and-miss pitch. His offerings include a rather flat fastball that sits in the 92-94 MPH range, a hard slider with some projection left on it and a changeup that’s fringe-average at this point.
Looking the part of a big league innings-eater at 6’6″, 223 pounds, Heckathorn’s career will ultimately be determined by his ability to spot his pitches. A lack of strikeout pitch coupled with the fact that he leaves the ball over the plate at a high rate (he has a H/9 ratio of 10.1 this season) shows that he’s still a ways off from a big-league appearance.
20. Eric Farris
2012 Stats (Triple-A): 314 PA, .263/.310/.305, 10 XBH, 63 wRC+ (83 G)
Once thought to challenge Rickie Weeks for the full-time role at second base, Farris is now in the midst of his third consecutive season in Triple-A ball. The difference between this season and his past two seasons, however, seems to be his production at the plate; he’s garnered just a .304 slugging percentage this season compared to a .372 last season.
Knocking on the door of 27 years old, Farris’ power decline at the plate will likely keep him from a starting job with the Brewers. He’s an above-average defender at second base and can hold his own at shortstop and the outfield, but the fact that his bat has been lagging so much this season says that he just doesn’t have the capacity to be an effective all-around big leaguer. It’s a shame, too, because he possesses top-tier speed that Ron Roenicke would love to utilize on the bases.
19. Kentrail Davis
2012 Stats (Double-A): 302 PA, .252/.336/.350, 19 XBH, 100 wRC+ (72 G)
After putting up tremendous numbers across the board against tough SEC competition at Tennessee, Davis fell to the Brewers at 39th overall in the 2009 draft and was considered one of the bigger steals of that year’s draft. The athletic outfielder was considered to have the ingredients necessary to be a future five-tool player at the next level. Now, he’s lucky if to sniff the majors in the next two seasons.
After tearing up the Midwest league to the tune of a .335/.421/.518 line during his rookie 2010 season, Davis was promoted to high-A Brevard County, where he batted just .244 in 150 plate appearances and witnessed a palpable spike in strikeouts. He spent his entire 2011 season in high-A again, and now resides in double-A, where his ability to hit for power has actually gotten worse.
Right now, the only thing keeping him in our top 25 rankings is his speed tool. Davis has tallied 55 career stolen bases to go with a 6.3 SPD rating this season, according to FanGraphs. Of course, his ability to steal bases is severely limited since his below-average bat has almost no projection left on it. Consequently, if Davis has any shot at the bigs, his bat will need major refinement.
18. Drew Gagnon
2012 Stats
Low-A: 14 GS, 2.83 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 65 K/19 BB, .217 BAA (82.2 IP)
High-A: 2 GS, 2.25 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 12 K/3 BB, .227 BAA (12 IP)
A third round pick from last summer’s draft, Gagnon came into this season overshadowed by the likes of fellow draftees Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley. While he is still pitching a full level lower than each, you could make the argument that he’s outperformed both.
After blowing through the rookie ranks in seven starts last season, the Long Beach State product has witnessed his strikeout rates diminish noticeably against Midwest League hitters. However, that’s the only area that’s witnessed regression, as he’s been able to hold batters in check to the tune of a .213 BA and a .254 BABIP. He’s looked even better over his first two starts in the Florida State league since his promotion.
With a four-pitch mix that includes a low-90s fastball and developing slider, curveball and changeup, Gagnon has the potential to be a quick-riser to the bigs with a chance to be a back-line starter.
17. Yadiel Rivera
2012 Stats (Low-A): 317 PA, .226/.260/.401, 29 XBH, 82 wRC+ (78 G)
A late-round pickup out of Puerto Rico in the 2009 draft, it’s taken Rivera just over two years to be named the consensus best overall shortstop in Milwaukee’s system. Mind you, there isn’t much competition for the title, however, there are some positives to take away from his game.
First and foremost, Rivera is an exceptional defender at shortstop. While he doesn’t have elite speed by any stretch of the imagination, he does have great athleticism that allows him to cover a lot of ground in the infield. Baseball Reference cites that he’s harbored a career range factor of 4.48 over 223 professional games. For comparison’s sake, that not too far off from what former Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy’s posted this season.
Yet while Rivera could probably play a decent shortstop in the bigs right now, it’s his bat that’s held him back from shooting through the system. He’s an aggressive hitter, rarely drawing walks and striking out at a concerning clip. If he can continue to make his swing more compact and continue to work on hitting offspeed offerings, he could see a spike in his offensive yield. Until then, though, he likely won’t see double-A for a few more seasons, which isn’t all that troubling since he’s still very young.
16. Hiram Burgos
2012 Stats
High-A: 6 GS, 0.87 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 41 K/6 BB, .147 BAA (41.1 IP)
Double-A: 10 GS, 2.05 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 61 K/24 BB, .234 BAA (61.1 IP)
The undoubted ace of the small-school Bethune Cookman rotation during his 2009 senior campaign, Burgos fell to Milwaukee in the sixth round of that year’s draft. Since then, his value within the organization took a massive beating due to poor performance against competition in the lower-minors. Then this season came around, and the Puerto Rico native flipped the switch on his previously dwindling career.
While he has a bevy of pitches at his disposal that he can throw for strikes, Burgos’ main pitches are a low 90s fastball, slider, curveball and changeup. None have much projection left and they don’t grade out as plus-average, either, though his command with each has been exceptional. He posted a walk rate of just four percent over six starts in high-A ball to start this season.
Burgos was pushed up to Double-A ball early on this season and while he flashed glimpses of success, he’s fallen off a bit. His walk rate has more than doubled and batters have teed off on him due to leaving the ball over the plate. If he’s to crack Triple-A or the big-league roster anytime soon, he’ll need to polish up his command a bit more.
15. Khris Davis
2012 Stats (Double-A): 86 PA, .324/.442/.479, 7 XBH, 168 wRC+ (27 G)
A guy who’s arguably outperformed any one player from Milwaukee’s abysmal 2009 draft class, Davis has proved to be one of the better bats in a farm system that has been starving for outfield position talent.
At 6’0″, 195 pounds, Davis doesn’t possess any one tool that projects to be plus-average at the next level, however, he doesn’t have any known weakness, either. He’s proven to be able to hit for average and little bit of power. He draws a fair number of walks but by that same token has struggled somewhat with strikeouts, most notably posting a strikeout rate of 23.3 percent this season against double-A Southern League pitching.
Davis was enjoying a tremendous season at the plate until suffering a leg injury back in mid-May, so much so that he currently holds true to a 168 wRC+. If he can get back to his line-drive hitting ways after returning, there’s a good chance he starts his 2013 campaign in triple-A.
14. David Goforth
2012 Stats (Low-A): 17 GS, 5.42 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 49 K/39 BB, .273 BAA (84.2 IP)
A full-time reliever turned starter by the end of his three-year collegiate stay at Ole Miss, Goforth fell to the Brewers in the seventh round at last year’s draft and should be considered a steal because of it. He showed to have good command of his pitches and the ability to strike out a ton of batters, additionally.
Strictly out of a relief role with the rookie club in Helena last season, Goforth struck out 42 batters in just 40.2 innings and posted a walk rate of just 5.8 percent. As a reliever in low-A ball this season, his strikeout yield and command have each witnessed regressions similar to what he went through in making the transition from reliever to starter in college. Those declines have a lot to do with Goforth’s “overpowering” mentality on the bump; he has a four-seamer that touches the upper 90s and a cutter slider that he gets batters off balance with.
The Brewers love what this kid has to offer and if he doesn’t start finding success as a starter, management is convinced he has the makeup of a legitimate big-league setup man/closer once his secondary pitches come around.
13. Mitch Haniger
2012 Stats (Low-A): 58 PA, .286/.379/.429, 5 XBH, 133 wRC+ (58 G)
A three-year contributor for head skipper Larry Lee at Cal Poly, Haniger’s most productive season came this year, where he was without question one of the best hitters in the country. In 211 at bats, the stocky outfielder retained a .458 wOBA (weighted on-base average), proving that he was more than capable of racking up extra-base hits.
Physically, Haniger has the ideal build of a guy who should hit for some power at the big league level. He’s drastically improved his approach at the plate during his junior season and that’s consequently helped him to tap into his power stroke that has a real chance to be plus-average. What’s more, Haniger also boasts a strong arm that should profile nicely in right field.
12. Hunter Morris
2012 Stats (Double-A): 348 PA, .309/.362/.525, 42 XBH, 148 wRC+ (84 G)
While Prince Fielder held down the fort at first base for the past six or so seasons, it was undoubtedly a tough time to be a first-baseman in the Brewers’ farm system. Now that he’s gone (and the future of Mat Gamel is also in deep question), an opportunity has risen for a handful of players. Leading that pack by a sizeable margin is none other than Hunter Morris.
An unmitigated slugger out of the University of Auburn, Morris agreed to sign on with Milwaukee as a fourth-round pick in 2009, and has since then stakes his claim as the top power-hitter in the Brewers’ system. This season, he’s produced career-best numbers in slugging percentage (.525), ISO (.202) and wOBA (.378) in a pitching-friendly double-A Southern League.
The only cause for concern right now seems to be his approach at the plate. He struggled with strikeouts in college to some extent and has garnered a career-high strikeout rate of 21.5% thus far this season. If he can shore that facet of his game, I believe he could be playing a full-time first-base for Ron Roenicke by the end of the 2014 season.
11. Jorge Lopez
2012 Stats: 3 GS, 6.61 ERA, 5.28 FIP, 11 K/9 BB, .304 BAA (16.1 IP)
The general consensus on young talent out of Puerto Rico is that there are plenty of projectable bats to go around but not a whole lot of arms to speak of. Lopez, Milwaukee’s third selection of the 2011 draft, may be one of the very few exceptions to that presumption.
Weighing in at an athletic 6’4″, 165 pounds, Lopez is very raw physically, with a ton of room to pack on some muscle in an effort to add more velocity to his pitches. Right now, he features a fastball that sits in the 89-91 MPH range that he’s shown to throw to both sides of the plate, a curveball that’s already close to big-league ready and a developing changeup. He’ll be a project for Milwaukee to develop, but once he pans out physically, he could be a very, very intriguing prospect.
10. Scooter Gennett
2012 Stats (Double-A): 370 PA, .289/.333/.389, 26 XBH, 104 wRC+ (86 G)
One of the most undervalued prospects in Milwaukee’s system by many scouts, Gennett continues to get his cuts from the left side of the plate as he rises toward the upper-levels of the minors. The impressive part is that those same cuts have resulted in consistent numbers.
At 5’9″, 180 pounds, Gennett doesn’t hit for power with much consistency, however, he is able to hit for a high average and knows the importance of getting on base. This season, the former 2009 draft pick has batted an even .300 with a .342 BABIP that’s close to his career .344 BABIP.
Representing the Brewers at the 2012 All-Star Futures Game in Kansas City, Gennett had the chance to strut his stuff at the plate in front of many scouts. If he can continue to hit at or above .300 at the double-A and triple-A level, the Brewers will have a tough time not giving him a shot at second base.
9. Caleb Gindl
2012 Stats (Triple-A): 299 PA, .242/.299/.385, 24 XBH, 74 wRC+ (79 G)
The second player taken in the 2007 draft from the traditionally talent-laden Pace High School in Pensacola, Florida, one could argue that Gindl has been Milwaukee’s top performing prospect since his 2008 rookie season. From that year up until the end of last season, Gindl has amassed a fairly high WARP rating of 12.7, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Physically, Gindl is probably a smidge undersized, however, he is able to generate a lot of home runs and gap power with a short, compact swing and strong hands at the plate. While he can run at an adequate rate, speed doesn’t really play into his game a whole lot and will be fringe-average at the next level. Moreover, his arm is nothing to write home about, which leads many scouts to believe he profiles as more of a corner outfielder if anything.
Gindl got off to an uncharacteristically slow start this season but has torched the competition this month. Still just 23 years old, the Brewers would love to hang on to him as long as they can; he could have a shot to stick it in the bigs as a platoon type right-fielder by the end of next season.
8. Clint Coulter
2012 Stats (Rookie): 43 PA, .154/.233/.282, 2 XBH, 31 wRC+ (10 G)
Designated for assignment with Milwaukee’s rookie club in Arizona to start his pro career, the 27th overall pick in last month’s draft looks to become the fastest-rising high schooler in the Brewers’ system since Prince Fielder in 2002. And if his physical tools, high school statistical yield and hard-working demeanor are any indication, he should be able to do just that.
At 6’3″, 215 pounds, Coulter is a physical specimen by any standards. Justin Roswell, Senior Director of Team One Baseball, deems the 18-year-old to have “big man strength“. That natural strength could turn him into a consistent line-drive power threat at the big league level. He has a balanced approach at the plate and a swing that’s quick and has little wasted movement.
In a Brewers farm system that was bereft of any elite bats prior to the draft, Coulter could vie to be Milwaukee’s top hitter on the farm with a solid showing at the plate this year.
7. Victor Roache
2012 Stats: N/A (Injured)
Leading the country in home runs (30) as a sophomore in 2011, Roache was one of the most productive position players in all of college baseball during his stay at Georgia Southern, where he averaged a .289/.423/.621 line as a two-year starter. Had he not suffered a broken wrist just seven games into his junior campaign, he would have surely been a top-10 pick instead of Milwaukee’s final 2012 first-round draftee.
Nevertheless, the Brewers remain staunch in their belief that Roache has a lot of helium, and it’s tough to disagree with that sentiment. At 6’2”, 225 pounds, the Michigan native has enough athleticism to play the outfield with an average arm that would profile nicely at either corner position, though he could ultimately end up in center depending on how well he performs in the next few seasons. He is an absolute force at the plate, moreover, having great pitch-recognition with violently quick-hands that drive the ball to all fields. To me, he looks like a more muscular version of Alfonso Soriano at the dish.
Roache is currently rehabbing in preparation for offseason competition, possibly even the Arizona Fall League. We should be able to gauge how quick he’ll rise to the majors based off his performance in those leagues.
6. Logan Schafer
2012 Stats (Triple-A): 347 PA, .288/.340/.449, 31 XBH (7 HR), 102 wRC+ (83 G)
One of the better all-around position players in the system, Schafer does just about everything in a proficient manner. His bat has been exceptional since his rookie season in 2008 and has been able to tap into some power with it as well. Moreover, Schafer might just be the best defender down on the farm.
After putting up a combined .315/.385/.439 line last season, Schafer has nearly worked his way back up to those numbers this season despite harboring an uncharacteristic .265 BA in the season’s first two months. His power-stroke has exhibited itself once more this season, holding true to a .138 ISO in 289 plate appearances.
Possibly his best tool, Schafer’s defense in the outfield this season has been arguably the best of his career. Right now, the Cal Poly product maintains a 2.42 range factor at the triple-A level compared to his career 2.27 range factor. Should he break through to the majors, it will be his coveted glove that will carry him.
5. Jimmy Nelson
2012 Stats
High-A: 13 GS, 2.21 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 77 K/25 BB, .210 BAA (81.1 IP)
Double-A: 3 GS, 4.73 ERA, 6.20 FIP, 9 K/14 BB, .245 BAA (13.1 IP)
Turning down the opportunity to join the Reds’ farm system as a 39thround pick in 2009 out of high school, Nelson was able to hone his pitches and grow into his massive build at the University of Alabama for three seasons before signing on with Milwaukee as a second-rounder in 2010. Since then, Nelson put together two solid seasons of professional ball. Neither, however, has been as impressive as his current campaign.
After working to develop his changeup this past offseason, the 6’6”, 245-pound Florida native was able to thoroughly dominated the competition, posting a 2.21 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 13 high-A ball starts, striking out just under a batter per inning. His achievement warranted a promotion to double-A, where he looks to see his improved offerings prompt a promotion to the Pacific Coast league in the near future.
Given his gargantuan yet still prototypical frame, credible three-pitch mix – that includes a low to mid-90s sinker, slider with plus-average movement and drastically improved changeup – and willingness to listen and get better, I’d say Nelson has the chance to reach the bigs possibly by the end of next season with a good chance to stick there by 2014.
4. Tyler Thornburg
2012 Stats
Double-A: 13 GS, 3.00 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 71 K/24 BB, .203 BAA (75 IP)
Triple-A: GS, 3.60 ERA, 0.80 FIP, 6 K/0 BB, .263 BAA (5 IP)
In the weeks following up to 2010 draft, there were a handful of scouts who hadn’t made up their minds over what Thornburg best projected to be – a below-average defensive position player with some pop in his swing, a slightly undersized starter who’d eventually struggle to eat innings or a kid who would utilize his hard-throwing nature to flourish out of a bullpen role.
Now just over two years later, scouts know exactly what Thornburg projects to be: A future big-league strikeout machine, no matter the role.
After making a mockery of hitters at the rookie ranks in 2010 to the tune of 38 strikeouts in just 23.1 innings, Thornburg posted almost as gaudy of number his following season between low-A and high-A ball, garnering a 10.5 K/9 ratio in 24 starts. This season, his yield was simply too overwhelming (8.5 K/9 in 13 double-A starts) to ignore, as he was able to make his first big-league start with Milwaukee on June 19.
While there are still some concerns about Thornburg’s taxing delivery and how well his arm might be able to hold up, there’s no denying that the guy simply knows how to get batters out with his stuff. If he can prove to go deeper into his starts by the end of this season, who knows where he’ll be pitching this time next year.
3. Taylor Jungmann
2012 Stats (High-A): 17 GS, 3.35 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 64 K/29 BB, .242 BAA (102 IP)
After putting up ridiculous numbers his junior season with Texas and being Milwaukee’s first selection in the 2011 draft, Jungmann faced tremendous expectations coming into the season. While he hasn’t been the strikeout machine many have expected, there have been plenty of positive takeaways thus farm.
In a Florida State League that houses some of the most advanced hitting prospects in the minors, Jungmann has averaged over six innings per start and has garnered an impressive walk rate of 6.8 percent. Sure, his strikeouts have been down at just six punchouts per nine innings, but the fact that he goes deep into most of his starts (he already has a complete game to his credit) says a lot about the workhorse-type of pitcher the Brewers believe he can be.
Jungmann features three pitches that graded out as plus-average at the draft last summer. His mid-90s four-seam fastball tops out at 98 MPH and his curveball has nice, sweeping bend to it. His changeup complements his fastball nicely and probably has more projection on it than any other of his offerings at this juncture.
2. Jed Bradley
2012 Stats (High-A): 16 GS, 4.55 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 54 K/31 BB, .278 BAA (87 IP)
Leading a shallow crop of left-handers in the 2011 draft, the Brewers were pleasantly surprised that Bradley fell to them at the No. 15 overall slot. After dominating for three seasons at Georgia Tech in which he went fanned over a batter per inning while conceding just one home run over 16 starts in his junior season, many scouts believed Bradley was one of the biggest steals of the draft – it’s easy to see why.
Having four pitches – a fastball that sits around 93-90 MPH, big-bending curveball, slider and changeup – that he has proven to throw strikes and induce a lot of swings-and-misses with, Bradley’s stuff isn’t that far from big-league ready. Moreover, his prototypical 6’4”, 225-pound frame suggests he could be areal innings-eater as a professional. Put that all together, and he’s believed to have the makeup of a solid No. 2 in a five-man big league rotation.
While he’s been fairly inconsistent in high-A ball this season, Bradley has managed to put together a string of solid starts. If he continues that type of production, there’s no doubting he has the chance to fly through the system and make his big-league debut possibly by the end of 2013.
1. Wily Peralta
2012 Stats (Triple-A): 18 GS, 5.10 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 79 K/49 BB, .275 BAA (90 IP)
Beginning his professional career as a undrafted free-agent out of Puerto Rico at just 17 years old in 2006, Peralta’s lengthy stay in the minors has him atop many scouts’ organization prospect rankings for a multitude of reasons. A big, durable frame to go with three big-league ready offerings are just a few of those aforementioned reasons.
At 6’2″, 240 pounds, Peralta has the a strong build that should be able to handle 30 or more starts at the big league level. He’s averaged roughly six innings per start since pitching exclusively as a starter back in 2010. For comparison’s sake, that’s about what Yovani Gallardo averaged during his stay in the minors.
Peralta throws a mid-90s fastball and an average changeup with little projection left on it. His best pitch is easily his slider, having great movement that induces a lot of swings-and-misses. The biggest reason for his delayed ETA has to be his command issues, which have been woefully obvious thus far this season, holding true to a walk rate of 13.2 percent over 14 starts.
Despite his struggles this season, Peralta is by my estimation the most well-rounded pitcher in Milwaukee’s system.
Milwaukee Brewers Trade Rumors: Latest Updates and Reaction
The Milwaukee Brewers came into the 2012 season with high hopes of returning to postseason contention. Despite the farewell bid by former first-baseman Prince Fielder, management believed that they could still contend with the pieces left over.
Unfortunately, things haven’t turned out as previously thought. With the All-Star break upon us, Milwaukee sits at a disconcerting 39-44, seven games out of first place in the National League Central division. Injuries and severe under-performance have cast a shadow of doubt over the immediate future of the organization, leaving many to wonder whether or not the club should add a piece or two for a second-half run or sell their assets to reboot for subsequent seasons.
A definitive answer to that question is still a ways off at this juncture. General manager Doug Melvin and principal owner Mark Attanasio have claimed they would like to see where they are in the standings at least a week after the break to decided the club’s intentions this month.
Still, rumors surrounding the club won’t cease to exist, especially given the amount of talent the club could potentially deal away. Here, we’ll keep you updated as those rumors continue to surface to go with a bit of reaction and analysis to go along with each.
What Could Zack Greinke Yield in a Trade?
Posted: Tuesday, July 10 at 11:56 a.m. CT
It’s been a topic up for discussion for a while now: What might the Brewers get in return for Zack Greinke via trade?
I tried my best to answer that very question a few days back, but that was well before a report surfaced that the Baltimore Orioles had a serious interest in Greinke, and also before the Atlanta Bravesappeared to be doing any more than their due-diligence in scouting the Brewers’ right-hander. Now, both clubs are probably the front runners in the sweepstakes.
Carson Cistulli, a writer for the highly-acclaimed baseball site FanGraphs.com, published a piece Monday morning trying to answer the question I alluded to earlier:What would Greinke yield in a trade? He attempted to answer that question by looking back at past trades involving high-priced starters and what the team dealing them received.
Here’s a short snippet of that Cistulli had to say:
Inspecting the four deals above, it appears as though, of late, top-end starters have been more likely to yield a number (in fact, four exactly, every time) of B and C-type prospects — as opposed to just one or two high-end type. Indeed, the Jimenez deal — with two B+ prospects, in Pomeranz and White — appears to have been the biggest return of those considered here.
It is currently unknown what the Brewers are looking in return for Greinke, but based on the deals that Cistulli revisited, Milwaukee may not get the high-profile prospect they’re looking for in return. Throw in the fact that the team receiving Greinke will not receive a compensatory draft pick should he walk in free-agency, and a potential deal this summer is becoming increasingly unlikely.
New York Mets Interested in Francisco Rodriguez
Posted: Saturday, July 7 at 12:00 p.m. CT
While Zack Greinke has dominated Milwaukee’s trade headlines and will from here on out, he is not the only veteran hurler with a potential to be moved via trade this month.
Ken Davidoff of the New York Post claimed last Tuesday that Francisco Rodriguez highlights the shortlist of relievers that the New York Mets would be interested in acquiring prior to the July 31 deadline. Among other things, Davidoff claims that the combination of Rodriguez’s poor performance this season together with the fact that the Mets won’t be scared to take on his 2012 salary , that this would be an “excellent fit”.
In 41 appearances this season, Rodriguez has garnered a 4.06 ERA and 1.51 WHIP while harboring a career-low strikeout rate of 20.3 percent. His subpar production has yielded him an unsightly -0.1 WAR rating, according to FanGraphs.
Should the Mets make a move for Rodriguez?
The Mets’ bullpen ranks among the worst in all of baseball this season, most notably in their league-high 5.04 ERA. In terms of raw value, New York’s bullpen has accumulated just a 0.3 WAR rating, enough to rank seventh-worst among all Major League bullpens. Clearly, they need help.
While Rodriguez has been a shell of his former self this season, he could still provide stability and a veteran presence as the Mets’ closer. They could then move Frank Francisco to the setup role and have a formidable one-two punch late in games.
The only thing that will hold this deal up is Milwaukee’s asking price. They’re on the prowl for MLB-ready prospects, and the Mets don’t have a whole lot to speak of.
Baltimore Orioles “Going Hard” for Zack Greinke
Posted: Saturday, July 7 at 9:15 a.m. CT
In a year where he could virtually guarantee himself a Matt Cain-esque contract once he hits the open market this winter, Zack Greinke has been spectacular for Milwaukee.
In 17 starts this season, the 28-year-old free agent to-be boasts a 3.08 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, striking out nearly a batter per inning. In terms of raw value, Greinke holds true to the second-highest WAR (wins above a replacement-level player) rating among all big league starters at 3.5. Many teams were interested in acquiring him before the season, but it now seems as though every contender wants a piece of Greinke-fever.
As I wrote last week in a collaborate piece with a few other columnists here on B/R, the Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox and Blue Jays seemed like the most logical destinations for Greinke through a trade this summer. Since then, though, another team has reportedly joined the party.
According to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun, the Orioles appear to be “the most aggressive suitor for Greinke” at this juncture. The Orioles are still very much in contention in the AL East thanks to a surprise outburst from their offense, currently just five and a half games out of first place in the division.
Should the Orioles make a push for Greinke?
The Orioles came out of the gates in scorching fashion, receiving tremendous production from their rotation, bullpen and offense. However, they’ve witnessed a progressive decline in productivity across the board with each month. If this persists, they probably won’t have the stamina to keep up with the Yankees for the division lead.
Obviously, trading for Greinke seems like the ideal thing to do if you’re general manager Dan Duquette. Baltimore has a bevy of prospects they could deal to Milwaukee, potentially even shortstop Manny Machado. The key to this deal will be whether or not they think they can re-sign Greinke in the offseason. If they feel they can, then this deal looks like a perfect fit for both parties.
Zack Greinke Rumors: Orioles, Braves Now Favorites to Land Brewers’ Star
According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, the Atlanta Braves and the Baltimore Orioles are believed to be the frontrunners in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes as the July 31 trade deadline nears.
The Baltimore Orioles will make a run at Brewers star Zack Greinke, sources say, and some now believe the Orioles and Atlanta Braves loom as the most likely to land Greinke in trade.
Of course, it’s very early, so early Greinke isn’t even known to be available yet. The Brewers are likely to wait to see how they fair against division competition in the games following the All-Star break before deciding whether to sell, a source said.
How the Brewers’ first few series following the All-Star break turn out could ultimately decide their intentions with respect to Greinke this summer. They are currently eight games out of first place in the division with the first game of a three-game weekend set against the Houston Astros coming Friday night.
Stay tuned for more news and rumors surrounding Greinke in the subsequent hours.
What Has Been the Most Glaring Absence from Last Year’s Team?
Ron Roenicke often finds himself searching for answers this season.
You don’t have to be an expert to realize something’s been amiss for the Milwaukee Brewers this season. In fact, juxtaposed to last season, it doesn’t take too much fundamental baseball knowledge to realize that a lot has been missing this season.
Under the guidance of rookie manager Ron Roenicke at this juncture last year, the Brewers were riding high at 46-42, just a game out of first place in the National League Central division, owning — among other things — the best home winning percentage among all big league clubs. Fast forward to a year later, and Roenicke’s same bunch sits at 38-44, just barely over the .500 mark at Miller Park, clinging to the notion that they will somehow return to postseason contention before they’re forced to sell their assets prior to the July 31 trade deadline.
Just what’s been missing, you ask? I’ll try my darndest to answer that question with some amount of certainty.
Shortstops with Plate Discipline
A position that the Brewers have struggled to find production through over the years, the lack of a steadfast offensive yield at the shortstop position this season has been precariously obvious compared to last season’s club.
Last year, fans griped about the often sub-par offensive capacity of Yuniesky Betancourt, Craig Counsell and Josh Wilson as the team’s primary shortstops. Over the course of 162 regular season games, the three combined for a .256/.277/.395 line with an average wRC+ of 57. Even considering Alex Gonzalez’s production prior to tearing his ACL, Milwaukee’s shortstops have yielded a .238/.304/.379 with an average wRC+ of 71 this season.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “Wait a minute, some of those numbers better than last season’s!”. While that is most certainly a correct observation, there is another key aspect that must not be overlooked — strikeouts.
Milwaukee’s shortstops last season maintained a superb strikeout rate of just 11 percent. Discounting Gonzalez, Brewers shortstops have garnered a strikeout rate of exactly 18 percent this season, and it doesn’t help that primary shortstop Cody Ransom has struck out in nearly half of his plate appearances this season, either.
Nyjer Morgan’s Production out of No. 2 Spot in Batting Order
In case you didn’t already know, Nyjer Morgan was really, really valuable last season, so much so that his WAR (wins above replacement) rating ranked fourth-highest among all players on the active roster despite playing in just 119 games, according to FanGraphs.
More specifically, though, Morgan was exceptionally valuable out of the No. 2 spot in Milwaukee’s batting order. In that role, the Walla Walla Community College product hit .310/.353/.415 with a .375 BABIP (batting average on balls that were in-play) and a strikeout rate of just 17 percent. This season, he’s experienced a massive decline in production, with a .248/.307/.310 line, .303 BABIP and a strikeout rate of 20 percent out of that same role.
Harboring a WPA (win probability added) of 2.00 last season, Morgan proved to be one of the bigger reasons for Milwaukee’s collective success. As proved by his unsightly -1.37 WPA this season, according to FanGraphs, Morgan has been almost a near opposite of what he was in 2011, and you can bet that’s been a big absence for Milwaukee.
Prince Fielder’s Production out of the Cleanup Role
In case it wasn’t already obvious enough, the 2012 Brewers dearly miss the offensive production yielded by former longtime first-baseman Prince Fielder — it’s hard to blame them for that fact.
As Milwaukee’s cleanup-man for each and every contest last season, Fielder was a force to be reckoned with. In 692 plate appearances, he posted a .299/.415/.566 line and drew a Major League-high 32 intentional walks. What’s more, he actually drew walks on a more frequent basis than he did strikeout, garnering a walk rate of 15.5 percent and a strikeout rate of 15.3 percent.
While free-agent pickup Aramis Ramirez has come on strong of late, the fact is that he just hasn’t produced up to Fielder’s standard, and that has directly affected Milwaukee’s lineup.
Through 75 games, the 34-year-old former silver-slugger has batted .268/.344/.474, drawing 30 total walks with one being intentional. The fact that Ramirez has posted significantly lesser slugging number than Fielder’s from 2011 has forced Ryan Braun into becoming a slightly more aggressive hitter, as displayed by his swing rate of 49.4 percent compared to his 44.6 percent last season, according to FanGraphs.
The source of Gallardo’s regression could be his fastball.
Whether you’d like to believe it or not, evidence shows that Fielder’s absence has probably been the most glaring void in Milwaukee this season.
Yovani Gallardo’s Fastball
There are signs everywhere that Yovani Gallardo has had a disappointing 2012 season. His command issues have led to an increase in walks, hits allowed, batting average against and, of course, a noticeable increase in ERA compared to last season. What has caused such a regression for Gallardo? The answer can be found within his fastball.
Generally known for having a great deal of confidence with his fastball, the 2012 version of Gallardo’s heater has been anything but what it was last season. For starters, the average velocity of his fastball this season has been 91.9 MPH (nearly a career low), down from 92.6 MPH last season, according to FanGraphs. And that’s not even the worst part.
As a possible consequence to his decrease in velocity, the value of his fastball has declined overwhelmingly. FanGraphs cites that Gallardo’s fastball garnered a linear weight (or “pitch value”) of 9.0 last season, enough to rank among the best of all big-league starters. This season, it’s down to an unsettling -5.0, which ranks exactly 13th-worst among starters with at least 100 innings pitched this season.
Defensive Value from Starters, Bench
The importance of having above-average, versatile gloves on a Major League roster cannot be overstated, and the Brewers are well-aware of that fact.
After ranking as one of the worst defensive teams in many categories last season, general manager Doug Melvin made it a priority to go out and find defensive help this past winter. While injuries have certainly taken their toll (see Alex Gonzalez and Mat Gamel) on their effort to improve in the field, it has become blatantly obvious that Milwaukee has actually regressed from where they were last season.
FanGraphs claims that Milwaukee has harbored a -12 DRS (defensive runs saved) through the first half of 2012 compared to their 16 DRS last season which, per the website, should be considered “gold glove caliber”. A lot of that should be accredited to their starters, however, overlooking the value of their gloves off the bench would be remiss.
According to Baseball Reference, Milwaukee’s top four defenders off the bench garnered a total dWAR (defensive wins above replacement) of 2.6 last season. This season, their four primary off-the-bench defenders have just a 1.5 dWAR, with most of their value coming from Nyjer Morgan’s 0.9 dWAR, if you even consider him a bench player.
Just what has been missing from the Brewers bench this season? Quite possibly the loss of utility man extraordinaire Jerry Hairston Jr., who last year alone saved eight runs in just 45 games, was the biggest blow to Milwaukee’s 2012 bench.
Sveum was more valuable to the Brewers than you probably thought.
Dale Sveum
I wish there were a statistic showing how many “wins above replacement” a quality hitting coach added to a Major League team’s record over a given period of time. You know, like they use for positional players and pitchers? Because if there were such a thing, I have a feeling Dale Sveum would have one of the higher ratings in all of baseball.
Milwaukee’s hitting coach from 2006 through last season, it can be statistically proven that Sveum had a lot to do with the hitting success of a few roster players. For example: Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Nyjer Morgan — arguably the heart of the Brewers’ lineup at season’s start — have experienced declines in contact rate compared to last season, as illustrated by FanGraphs. Only Corey Hart and the presently injured Jonathan Lucroy have witnessed an increase in their contact rate from last season to this year.
As we all (should) know, the first priority of a hitting coach is to, well, make sure you’re players are making contact with the baseball at an adequate rate. The fact that Weeks, Morgan and the reigning NL MVP have accomplished that at a much lesser rate than last season shows us how much importance Sveum carried last season. He is dearly missed.
Tyler Thornburg Cracks Baseball America’s Mid-Season Top 50 MLB Prospects List
Thornburg has been nothing short of stellar during his stay in the minors / Courtesy of LatinoSports.com
At the beginning of the season, the general consensus coming from many top prospect gurus around the globe was that either Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley could all have a viable shot at becoming the Milwaukee Brewers’ top prospect by the end of 2012. Apparently, they lost track of quite possibly Milwaukee’s most scintillating youngster down on the farm since his rookie season of 2010.
The player I am of course referring to is none other than 23-year-old right-hander Tyler Thornburg, who after conceding just two earned runs over the course of five innings while striking out six in his triple-A Pacific Coast League debut is 20-7 with a career minor-league ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 1.10. Throw in the fact that he’s perpetuated his strikeout prowess with each promotion while improving his command in tremendous fashion, and he may very well be Milwaukee’s top hurler down in the farm.
On Wednesday, the intelligent folks over at Baseball America published their mid-season Top 50 MLB Prospects list, with Thornburg as the lone representative of Milwaukee’s entire system at 48th overall. They didn’t elaborate too much on each player, but here’s what they had to say about Thornburg:
“Made big league debut in June, then went on minors DL with sore wrist; adding evidence he can start.”
There were questions about whether or not Thornburg has the stuff and the durability to become a big-league starter down the road after experiencing command issues in his first few seasons, but after working on his stuff in the offseason, it looks as though he could be destined for a rotation instead of a bullpen role. Between double-A and his lone triple-A start his season, Thornburg has a BB/9 ratio of 2.7 and a K/9 ratio of 8.7, holding batters to a feeble .217 batting average while averaging 5.7 inning pitched through 14 starts.
Thornburg made his big-league debut against the Toronto Blue Jays back on June 19. He looked impressive through the first few innings but the wheels fell off once he got to the sixth inning, where he allowed back-to-back-to-back home runs in that frame. However, there were plenty of positives to take away from his outing.
Look for Milwaukee’s new apparent top pitching prospect to finish out his 2012 campaign with triple-A Nashville, where he will look to work on the command of his curveball — among other things — and try to prove he has what it takes to stick it in the bigs as a back-of-the-rotation type hurler.
Alec Dopp
