June 2012
MLB Trade Rumors: 5 Potential Deals to Get Zack Greinke out of Milwaukee
As Major League Baseball’s annual July 31 non-waiver trade deadline draws nearer by the day, the Milwaukee Brewers continue to question whether or not they should become buyers or sellers come the final day of July. Currently treading water at 34-41, the Brewers haven’t been a complete disaster this season, however, they haven’t looked like a club destined for a postseason berth, either.
Easily the most pressing issue facing GM Doug Melvin and owner Mark Attanasio this summer is the trade status of Zack Greinke, who through the first half of the season has performed nothing short of Cy Young-worthy. His fabulous production this season will consequently offer tremendous trade value as the summer persists, and despite the numerous reports saying Milwaukee will opt not to trade him, you have to believe that if the Brewers continue to slip in the standings that they’ll have no other choice but to deal their ace.
If that’s the case, then the question obviously becomes: Which teams could be interested in trading for Greinke and what would they be willing to relinquish in order to attain his services?
I recently spoke with a few featured columnist on Bleacher Report in the hopes of sorting out a few potential deals that could go down as the trade deadline nears.
New York Yankees
The Deal:
Yankees Receive: Zack Greinke
Brewers Get: RHP Dellin Betances, SS Eduardo Nunez, OF Slade Heathcott, C Francisco Cervelli
Yankees FC Doug Rush‘s take:
With this trade, the Brewers would get a backup catcher who is MLB-ready, and a super utility infielder/outfielder who is also MLB ready with a bat. With Betances, they get the Yankees #2 prospect who, if he ever straightens out, can be very good. With Heathcott, they get a young outfielder they could use in maybe 2 years.
The Yankees just scouted Greinke’s latest start today. With the injuries to Sabathia and Pettitte, looking into Greinke makes a lot of sense.
My take: The news that the Yankees scouted Greinke in his last start shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to anyone, as the immediate and distant futures of CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte are in deep question after suffering injuries. Needless to say, New York will need to add another guy to their rotation of Greinke’s caliber if they’re to stay atop the AL East.
If the Brewers aren’t able to lock up Greinke between now and the All-Star break, I think they’ll look to deal him away. Unfortunately for the Yankees, I think they’d rather keep him and run the risk of not signing him in the offseason that take this deal up. Betances’ monster 6’8″, 240-pound frame has a ton of potential as so does Nunez, but I don’t think Melvin will have much of an interest in Heathcott or Cervelli.
Chances this deal goes through: Not likely
Atlanta Braves
The Deal:
Braves Receive: Zack Greinke
Brewers Receive: SS Tyler Pastronicky, RHP Todd Redmond, OF Jordan Parraz, RHP Zeke Spruill
Braves FC Chris Stephens‘ take:
With the loss of Brandon Beachy for the year, and possibly next year, the Braves are in dire need of starting pitching, especially considering the performances of Mike Minor and Randall Delgado thus far.
Greinke would be a great addition to the Braves rotation, but there could be a few snags – Greinke is a free agent after this year and will likely carry a high pricetage to re-sign. Because of that, giving up a bunch of talented prospects for Greinke will be hard to come by. The Braves definitely don’t want to get burned like they did in the Mark Teixeira trade, so they’re going to be careful here.
Prospects and/or other guys the Braves would consider relinquishing would be Triple-A Gwinnett’s SS Tyler Pastronicky, P Todd Redmond and/or OF Jordan Parraz, and Double-A Mississippi’s Zeke Spruill. Guys on the big-league team that could be considered are Anthony Vavarro and Jose Constanza. Obviously, not all of these guys will be involved in a trade, but they’re some of the ones I believe they’ll consider letting go. Julio Teheran, Evan Gattis, Todd Cunningham, Christian Bethancourt and Sean Gilmartin won’t be involved in my opinion.
My take: The loss of Brandon Beachy to Atlanta’s rotation was an unfortunate one, as he was in the midst of quite possibly a Cy Young-worthy season. Now, the Braves are stuck trying to decided whether or not Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens will be able to carry the load for their rotation for the remainder of the season.
If the Braves do decided to acquire a veteran power-arm before the deadline, Greinke will likely be atop their wish-list. Given that Atlanta’s farm system has a number of high-ceiling prospects, the Brewers could very well be enticed by a potential deal. Problem is, if the Braves aren’t willing to deal youngsters such as Julio Teheran or Christian Bethancourt, then I just don’t see a viable reason for Milwaukee to pull the trigger — the Brewers will be looking for at least one top-tier prospect in return for Greinke.
Chances this deal goes through: Not likely
Texas Rangers
The Deal:
Rangers Get: Zack Greinke
Brewers Get: 3B Mike Olt, RHP Neil Ramirez, RHP Justin Grimm
Rangers FC Lance Reaves‘ take:
Jurickson Profar and Martin Perez are probably the two most untouchable prospects in the Rangers organization. Their farm system is very pitching heavy. A starting pitcher that might satisfy the Brewers is 23-year-old Neil Ramirez, who is considered one of the team’s top prospects with a high upside. A guy who could be ready to contribute fairly soon is pitcher Justin Grimm. Another young player with a lot of promise is Mike Olt, a third baseman who is having a great season for the Rangers’ Double A affiliate.
However, even for a player of Greinke’s caliber, it’s very unlikely Texas would be willing to offer both Ramirez and Olt in a deal. Centerfielder Leonys Martin might also be mentioned, but that will have a lot to do with Josh Hamilton’s contract situation.
My take: While the Rangers are absolutely loaded in the bullpen, the injury to Colby Lewis (who was the only real strikeout threat featured in their rotation outside of Yu Darvish) was a wretched one for the AL West front-runners. They may have the ability to ward off the surging Los Angeles Angels for now, but you can bet your bottom dollar that they’re already in the works to upgrade their rotation — possibly through the acquisition of Greinke.
From the Brewers’ vantage point, anything short of annexing at least one top-caliber prospect through trading Greinke should be considered unrealistic at this juncture. As Lance mentioned, both Jurickson Profar and Martin Perez are all but untouchable. However, I do believe that Milwaukee would be tempted by the prospect of acquiring Mike Olt, who’s been nothing short of a slugger during his stay in the minors. Throwing in two arms that are fairly big-league ready such as Neil Ramirez and Justin Grimm might actually be enough to get something done.
Chances this deal goes through: Somewhat likely
Boston Red Sox
The Deal:
Red Sox Get: Zack Greinke
Brewers Get: RHP Anthony Ranaudo, SS Jose Iglesias, OF Jackie Bradley
Red Sox FC Benjamin Klein‘s take:
The Boston Red Sox starting rotation isn’t in the best shape. The starters have been inconsistent, injured or just flat out bad this season—with possibly the exception of Felix Doubront—but somehow they’re still in the playoff hunt. They really need a front-line starter badly and could be interested in Zack Greinke. Greinke will enter free agency at the end of the season so Boston GM Ben Cherington would have to be sure he could lock him up long-term if a deal were to happen.
If I’m Cherington, I’d be willing to give up three impact prospects from the minor league system—possibly Anthony Ranaudo, Jose Iglesias and Jackie Bradley. I would really have to make sure that Greinke had interest in a contract extension with the Red Sox before completing a deal, though.
My take: Similar to the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox starting rotation has suffered through injuries, and that unfortunate reality could be the incentive they need to try and complete a deal with Milwaukee in return for Greinke.
As with many teams that would love to annex Greinke through a trade, the problem is that Boston won’t part ways with the two top-tier prospects in their system. Shortstop Xandar Bogaerts and RHP Matt Barnes would be two of the names Melvin would love to add to his system, but the odds that Cherington parts ways with either are slim to none. Consequently, settling for a lesser prospect in Jose Iglesias or Anthony Ranaudo doesn’t seem like something Milwaukee would be interesting in doing.
For now, it looks as though the Red Sox and Brewers must look elsewhere to fulfill their needs.
Chances this deal goes through: Slim to none
Toronto Blue Jays
The Deal:
Blue Jays Get: Zack Greinke
Brewers Get: OF Anthony Gose, RHP Deck McGuire, RHP Chad Jenkins
Blue Jays FC Stephen Brown‘s take:
The Blue Jays have become desperate for starting pitching following the injuries to potential All-Star Brandon Morrow and youngsters Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison as well as the general ineffectiveness of Ricky Romero. If you take a look at their probably starters for their series against the Angels it includes Carlos Villanueva and Aaron Laffey two guys who were nowhere near the rotation at the beginning of the season.
Greinke would be a great asset for the Blue Jays and they have the assets to acquire him. There are some pieces that would most likely be untouchable (CF Anthony Gose, C Travis D’Arnaud, SP Noah Syndergaard) but there are also many plausible scenarios.
OF Travis Snider and Eric Thames are two of the main pieces that would be included in a trade. Neither are a top tier prospect anymore but definitely an extra piece that could be added.
The Jays have a glutton of SPs like Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins that would have to be involved. Drabek’s injury makes him untradeable at this point but a young SP would most likely be the key piece.
My take: This deal makes a whole lot of sense, honestly. Not only does it satisfy Milwaukee’s need for at least one top prospect to go with a couple other average ones, but it doesn’t severely deplete a Blue Jays organization that many consider to be the most talent-laden farm systems in Major League Baseball.
Needless to say, Toronto needs help with their starting rotation. As Stephen mentioned earlier, injuries to both strikeout machine Brandon Morrow and Kyle Drabek — among others — has left their rotation destitute of a veteran, power-type arm. Greinke would certainly bring that to John Farrell’s club.
I believe this deal will hinge on the willingness of Toronto to include Anthony Gose. He’s a premier centerfield talent that the Brewers would jump all over if given the chance, as the Nyjer Morgan-Carlos Gomez experiment has failed epically this season and neither will be around for much longer.
Chances this deal goes through: Somewhat likely
Mitch Haniger Complete Scouting Report
Haniger could be the first of Milwaukee’s 2012 draft heap to reach The Show. / Courtesy of PostCrescent.com
Loading up on both college and high-school prep arms at last year’s draft, Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin and director of amateur scouting Bruce Seid decided that it would be in the organization’s best interest to take a more contrary route at Major League Baseball’s 2012 first-year player draft.
After selecting Union HS (Wa.) catcher Clint Coulter at No. 27 overall and Georgia Southern outfielder Victor Roache with the very next pick, the Brewers opted to add yet another power-type position player in college outfielder Mitch Haniger with the 38th overall slot.
A three-year contributor at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, the Santa Clara, California native staked his claim as one of the most prolific all-around talents in all of college baseball during his sophomore and junior seasons. As a sophomore, Haniger batted .275/.371/.466 with six home runs, 27 RBI and 33 runs scored in 52 games. After working hard to refine his approach at the plate last summer, he returned to hit .346/.438/.626 with 64 RBI and 132 total bases in 259 plate appearances for the Mustangs this past season.
Having received his $1.2 Million signing-bonus and already focused on getting his reps in with the Brewers’ class-A affiliate Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, Haniger now has his sights set on rising through the system in a timely fashion. Given what many scouts see in Haniger, that shouldn’t be much of a problem.
But before Haniger hastens up toward the upper minors, it thought it necessary to bring Brewers fans some insight to his game and what he projects to be down the road. I made my way out to Appleton, Wisconsin to see Haniger play to see how he’s looked in his first few professional games. Based off what I saw and what I’ve been hearing, here is a fully-fledged scouting report on Haniger.
Physical Makeup
Height/Weight: 6’2″, 215 pounds
One of the many positive things that scouts have to say about Haniger is his athletic build. At a lean and stocky 6’2″, 215 pounds, he has all the athletisicm necessary to stick in the big leagues, most likely at a corner outfield position, though he showed over the course of his junior season that he can play center field.
The more I watch Haniger, the more he reminds me of Baltimore Orioles outfielder Adam Jones from a physicality standpoint. Both have the makeup to suggest they can play the outfield at an above-average level, both with the glove and the arm. At the plate, Haniger may be a bit more built than Jones, so there’s a good chance he hits for more power at the big league level.
Hitting
After opting not to sign on as a 31st-round pick by the Mets in 2009 out of high school, Haniger made his way to college with a lot to work on with respect to his hitting. Baseball America cited that he worked hard to mend his swing and approach at the plate heading into his senior season, specifically “getting his hands in better hitting position and staying in sync more consistently.”
Apparently, those adjustments helped. Haniger drew 36 walks to just 32 strikeouts in 211 at-bats over the course of his junior season with the Mustangs. Compared to fellow first-rounder Mike Zunino — widely heralded as the 2012 draft’s best hitter — who walked just 32 times compared to 52 strikeouts this past season, Haniger’s patience and plate discipline stacks up nicely against many of his fellow 2012 draftees.
As a consequence to his improved mechanics, Haniger was able to tap into his power at a staggering clip during his junior season. The runaway Big West Conference leader with a .458 wOBA (weighted on-base average) and .280 ISO (isolated power), Haniger showed scouts that he has the potential to have plus power as a professional. Right now, his power grades out as average with some room to grow.
Video Breakdown
I had the opportunity to see Haniger play a few days back, and was neither impressed nor disappointed. He made four plate appearances out of the No. 3 spot in the lineup, singling once and striking out twice.
The clip below shows Haniger’s second at-bat of the game against Cardinals prospect Dail Villanueva, a southpaw who works out of a 3/4 arm slot, topping out around 92-89 with his fastball and also having a nice breaking pitch and changeup.
A few notes to take away from this at-bat:
- Sets up pretty deep in the box and away from the plate; wide stance; hands at ear-level though they do fade away from his body
- Uses his bat as a timing mechanism; a bit too exaggerated in my opinion
- Has some bat speed but could certainly add more too it with a shortened, more accentuated swing
- Remains relatively balanced throughout both swings though he was a bit knoted-up in his last swing (which was a ground-out to third-base)
The snapshots below depict Haniger’s mechanics against a low-and-away pitch from Villanueva.
For me, the biggest lesson learned from this particular at-bat is that he’ll need to work on shortening his swing on pitches down in the zone. With his hands and bat being as active as they are pre-pitch, it’s not surprising that his bat can flatten out a bit.
While he does keep his hands back nicely, they do drop a bit as the ball arrives to the lower half of the strike-zone, which leads to his long, looping swing. The good thing is that this can improve over time, and once it does, he’ll be able to generate even more power.
Final Assessment
There is a whole lot to like about Haniger’s game. His athleticism gives him the ability to play a decent center-field and his strong arm suggests he could play a very good right-field at the big league level.
Hitting-wise, Haniger has improved leaps and bounds over the past year. He’s developed a more disciplined approach at the plate, most notably against off-speed offerings, and that has directly affected his ability to tap into his power. Right now, his power grades out as average but projects to be at or near 60 on the 20-80 grading scale.
It will be interesting to see how well Haniger performs in what should be a short-lived stay in low-A ball and how fast he hastens through the rest of the system. With Coulter honing his skills in rookie ball and Roache still rehabbing from injury, there’s a good chance Haniger is the first of the Brewers’ 2012 draft class to reach the majors.
Once he gets there, I think (and you can quote me on this) he will have the chance to hit around .270/.330/.515 out of either a No. 2 or No. 5 spot in any big-league lineup on a yearly basis.
John Axford: Inside the Numbers
Upon entering the Milwaukee Brewers’ organization and permanently transforming himself from starter to reliever in 2008, John Axford has garnered a reputation for being one of — if not the – best closers in all of Major League Baseball up to this juncture.
Utilizing his exceptionally effective three-pitch mix of a mid to high-90s four-seam fastball, power-curveball and swing-and-miss inducing slider, the 29-year-old managed to successfully closed the door in a staggering 93 percent of his save opportunities (70-for-75) since becoming Milwaukee’s full-time closer midway through the 2010 season up until the end of his 2011 regular season. During that same time-span, Axford also won 10 of 14 decisions, posted a 2.14 ERA (2.27 FIP, 2.82 xFIP) and 1.16 WHIP, held batters to a .209 batting average while strikeout out exactly 11.1 batters per nine innings pitched. For what it’s worth, the Ontario, Canada native accounted for exactly 3.9 wins above a replacement-level player between in that timeframe.
Given how admirable Axford has performed in each of his last two seasons, the average baseball fan would have no other choice but to expect for him to perform as well as or possibly even better his following season. But as just about any Brewers fan would tell you, that simply hasn’t been the case.
As the 2012 All-Star break inches closer and games only continue to become more important, one could make the case that the Prince Fielder-less Brewers have managed to tread water in the NL Central divisional race not because of their all-world closer, but in spite of him. In 29 appearances, Axford has won just one of four decisions and carries a repulsive 5.60 ERA (3.67 FIP, 3.36 xFIP) and 1.57 WHIP, walking nearly six batters per nine innings pitched while converting just 12 saves in 16 opportunities. The only positive that can be taken away from Axford’s performance this season would have to be his strikeout capacity, which has witnessed a tangible increase from 10.5 K/9 last season to 12.5 K/9 so far in his current campaign.
However, Axford’s statistical regressions on the bump extend well beyond the often overemphasized rudimentary statistics. If you were to take a look at what hitters have done against him this season compared to that of 2011, you’d quickly find more areas for concern. The following table (statistics provided by Fan Graphs) attempts to delineate those regressions.
Taking a look at this table, it’s easy to see that batters have had much more success against Axford’s stuff this season compared to last season. Save for the depression in his fly ball rate and subsequent improvement in his ground ball to fly ball ratio, the numbers clearly suggest that batters are, well, hitting his pitches at a much more frequent rate. The two biggest areas of concern presented by the table should be the spike in his line-drive rate and his perplexing infield fly-ball rate.
A high line-drive rate of his magnitude is concerning, because it says that the pitcher — Axford, in this case — is leaving the ball over the plate and in the strikezone on a much too frequent basis. The league-average for line-drive rates, according to Fan Graphs, is 20 percent, which Axford is clearly well above. His infield-fly ball rate of 0.0 percent also falls well-below the league average of 10 percent. Generally speaking, a high infield fly-ball rate says that hitters aren’t making good contact with the ball, which can often be accredited to a pitcher having great command of his pitches or that his offerings have great late-breaking movement.
Of course, what makes Axford’s statistical decline so difficult to understand–this is where is gets a bit confusing–is that hitters are actually putting the ball in play at a lesser overall rate this season juxtaposed to 2011.
According to Fan Graphs, hitters have garnered a contact rate of 75 percent off Axford this season compared to a contact rate of 77.3 percent last season. More specifically, each of his pitches have witnessed a decrease in the rate of which they are put in play.
The chart below (provided by Texas Leaguers) is a breakdown of Axford’s in-play rates from last season.
|
Type |
Count |
Selection |
In Play |
| FF (4-seam fastball) |
854 |
69.2% |
16.3% |
| CU (curveball) |
216 |
17.5% |
11.6% |
| SL (slider) |
164 |
13.3% |
17.7% |
Now, here’s this season.
|
Type |
Count |
Selection |
In Play |
| FF (4-seam fastball) |
421 |
72.5% |
13.5% |
| CU (curveball) |
114 |
19.6% |
9.6% |
| SL (slider) |
46 |
7.9% |
10.9% |
While there isn’t an overwhelming discrepancy between his in-play rates from last season and those from this season, these tables are proof that Axford has actually been better this season than last to some degree. As you can see, he’s become more dependent on his fastball compared to last season and has consequently used his slider to a much lesser degree. Whether the obvious decrease in his slider usage is due of a lack of confidence or is completely purposeless will be determined at a later date, however, there’s no denying that something’s affecting him.
Statistics aside, though, Axford has clearly labored through the first couple months of the season. Most of his struggles have come from the fact that he’s leaving the ball in the strike-zone at a much more frequent rate, and that has consequently worked against him as hitters continue to put the ball in play with solid, line-drive contact.
Not to say that Axford isn’t the pitcher he was a year ago, but he sure hasn’t looked the same. Needless to say, the Brewers will need him at his very best if they have any intention of returning to postseason action.
What We Learned from Tyler Thornburg’s MLB Debut
After much speculation as to who would take the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night against the Toronto Blue Jays, it was not-so-formally announcedMonday night that 23-year-old Brewers pitching prospect Tyler Thornburg would take the mound for Ron Roenicke’s bunch against the heavy-hitters from the north.
Thornburg, who at this time last year was still pitching for the Brewers’ class-A minor league affiliate Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, was recalled from double-A to triple-A earlier in the week, and was expected to join the Brewers’ triple-A affiliate Nashville Sounds on Monday. Obviously that wasn’t the case, as the Houston, Texas native made his way to Milwaukee sometime after he had this to say to all of his followers on Twitter early Sunday afternoon.
One of the more impressive prospects in Milwaukee’s system since being drafted in the third round of the 2010 draft, Thornburg has posted some gaudy numbers during his time in the minors, with this year being quite possibly his most dominant go-around yet. In 13 starts with Milwaukee’s double-A affiliate Huntsville Stars, the Charleston Southern product went 8-1 and posted a 3.00 ERA, (3.39 FIP), holding batters to a .203 batting average and .250 BABIP while striking out nearly a batter per inning.
Of course, Thornburg’s highly-anticipated Major League debut at Miller Park on Tuesday night was by no means his most memorable outing of the year, which is to some extent expected given his lack of experience both in the upper-minors as well as his unfamiliarity with big-league hitting.
In 5.1 innings (93 total pitches), Thornburg conceded five earned runs on seven hits allows, striking out two and walking none. He strutted his above-average fastball-changeup combination early on and got through the first five innings relatively unscathed. However, it pretty much unraveled in the sixth innings, when he allowed three consecutive home runs, putting the Brewers behind by a 6-4 mark.
All things considered, there are plenty of positives to take away from Thornburg’s first outing in the majors. At the same time, though, there are a few areas for concern that will need to be addressed once he gets his feet back under him in the minors the rest of this season.
First and foremost, I thought Thornburg commanded his pitches extremely well. A pitcher who’s lowered his walk rate progressively with each season in the minors (4.3 BB/9 in 2010, 3.3 BB/9 in 2011, 2.9 BB/9 thus far in 2012), Thornburg has always been known for having at the very least respectable command on the mound. On Tuesday night, as I alluded to earlier, Thornburg’s command was on point, walking no batters in 5.1 innings of work.
On the flip side of things, it was fairly evident that Thornburg’s go-to pitch was his fastball throughout the contest, and boy did he get his reps in. Of his 93 pitches against the Blue Jays, exactly 63 of them were fastballs, enough to account for a staggering 73 percent of his pitches, according to Brooks Baseball. Furthermore, the Blue Jays were able to tee off on Thornburg’s heater — which topped out a 95.7 MPH and had an average speed of 92.26 MPH — whiffing on just two of his fastball offerings on the night.
Given that Thornburg relied so heavily on his fastball in his first big-league outing, it should come as no surprise that the Blue Jays socked four round-trippers off the young 23-year-old. Whenever a lineup comparable to Toronto’s gets numerous looks at the same pitch, it’s almost a given that they’re going to hit the ball with authority more often than not.
Mechanically speaking, Thornburg looked the part. His notorious Tim Lincecum-esque delivery that we took a look at in early March manifested itself early in Tuesday night’s contest. The chart below displays the release points of Thornburg’s fastball, curveball and changeup (courtesy of Texas Leaguers),
Courtesy of Texas Leaguers
Working over the top with a delivery that looks as though it puts a ton of ware and tare on his arm, one can only expect Thornburg’s release points to deviate a bit. Having said that, I think that his release points were pretty consistent given the heat of the moment in his first big-league start. That will most definitely be a sign of good things to come; the more Thornburg can repeat his delivery, the more effective his fastball-changeup combination will become.
Overall, I thought Thornburg’s first big-league outing warrants a lot of optimism but also a few areas of concern, though nothing worth losing sleep over. It should be interesting to see how he handles his demotion back to triple-A Nashville. If he can produced relative to his career numbers there, I think he’ll push for a permanent bullpen spot by the end of next season.
Will (and Should) the Brewers Regret Not Trading Prince Fielder?
One of the most aggressive and “win-now” organizations in Major League Baseball over the past decade, seldom have the Milwaukee Brewers and it’s brass gazed back upon the past with any excessive amount of remorse. But given the state of the franchise right now, there’s a good chance that general manager Doug Melvin should have second thoughts about not trading his longtime first-baseman, Prince Fielder, prior to or at the non-waiver trade deadline last season.
Here are a few reasons why Milwaukee should regret not dealing away Fielder last summer.
Prospects, Prospects, Prospects
After putting their farm system on wholesale two winters ago, the Brewers’ minor league affiliates were left in a world of hurt.
Many of the prospects Milwaukee dealt away were nearing a big-league promotion. And while palpable improvements were made a year and a half later, fans are left asking themselves: What might the farm system look like had Melvin dealt Fielder to a desperate contender?
While the answer to that question is unclear and relatively unanswerable, one would have to assume that the Brewers could have landed two, three or even four top-tier youngsters to help aid their system. Who knows—maybe those players would have been MLB-ready by the beginning of this season and could have been able to aid in Milwaukee’s quest toward the postseason this year.
Unfortunately, the organization won’t have the opportunity to watch those potential prospects flourish on the big-league stage. Instead, the Brewers are left with no Fielder and no prospects. That’s regrettable in and of itself.
Fielder’s Value Could’ve Gone Towards Upgrading Other Positions
Alongside Ryan Braun in Milwaukee’s lineup, Prince Fielder was the offensive catalyst to Ron Roenicke’s batting order. Out of the cleanup spot for virtually the entire season, Fielder put up monster numbers on a consistent basis. Consequently, his value was extremely high—but how high?
According to Fan Graphs, Fielder’s statistical yield with the both his bat and glove carried him to a 5.5 WAR (wins above a replacement-level player) that ranked fourth-best among all first basement in baseball and second-best to only Reds first baseman Joey Votto (6.9 WAR) in the National League.
There were a few rumors out there that general manager Doug Melvin might look to trade Fielder before the July 31 trade deadline, but obviously nothing came to fruition. If Melvin would have acted on the sky-high value of his slugging first baseman, the Brewers would have been able to upgrade multiple positions within their lineup and probably wouldn’t be in the injury-ravaged situation they currently find themselves in.
Poor Postseason Production
After a regular season in which he started every single game and posted nothing short of MVP-caliber numbers out of the cleanup spot on Ron Roenicke’s lineup, Fielder was unable to perpetuate his successes into postseason action.
In six postseason games for a total of 25 plate appearances, Fielder posted a slash line of .200/.360/.600 of which included just two home runs, three runs batted in and four runs scored. He also struck out on over 19 percent of his at-bats and uncharacteristically walked on just 8.7 percent of his at-bats, according to Texas Leaguers. This, of course, came after the stocky slugger managed a .299/.415/.566 line with a strikeout rate of 15.3% and a walk rate of 15.5% over the course of the entire regular season, according to Fan Graphs.
General manager Doug Melvin did nearly everything in his power last season to put together a World Series-caliber lineup that would flourish on the biggest and brightest of stages. Unfortunately, the anchor of his batting order just couldn’t get the job done—there’s no denying that Fielder’s productivity warrants some regret.
Money Not Spent on Fielder Could’ve Been Spent on Re-Signing Zack Greinke
Another year, another contractual quandary for the Milwaukee Brewers.
Last year, the Brewers found themselves in a tough situation with the Prince Fielder, and now they find themselves in a similar situation with Zack Greinke. Lamentably, the entire contract-extension dispute regarding Greinke could have been completely avoided if Melvin would have, at the very least, opened up trade talks for Fielder last season.
Had Milwaukee dealt Fielder to a desperate contender last summer, not only would it have yielded a number of top-caliber prospects, but it would have also taken a large portion of Fielder’s behemoth $15.5 Million 2011 salary off the books. One can only assume that the money saved from shipping Fielder off would have aided Melvin and his brass in their quest to ink Grienke to a lucrative contract extension.
Unfortunately, that opportunity has come and gone, and one would have to think Melvin will regret that reality for years to come.
Alec Dopp covers the Milwaukee Brewers as a featured columnist at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @alecdopp and read his blog, Brewers Rumors.
10 Reasons the Brewers Will Stay Afloat Despite a Hampered Ryan Braun
Coming into the season, the Milwaukee Brewers considered themselves a postseason-caliber ballclub. Now mid-June, their attitude remains in-tact despite stomaching a laundry-list of injuries to some of their most key players. Now, their trying stay afloat with the reigning National League Most Valuable Player, Ryan Braun, on injury-watch.
Here are 10 reasons the Brewers will be able to stay afloat in the hunt for the postseason with their most indispensable player slightly banged up.
Norichika Aoki Has Been Absolutely Dependable at the Plate
There were plenty of those who questioned Milwaukee’s signing of former Japanese superstar Norichika Aoki coming into the season. Now mid June, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who doesn’t believe he’s been a tremendous addition to Ron Roenicke’s roster.
The 30-year old prototype Japanese outfielder has been absolutely dependable for the Brewers thus far into the season, particularly at the plate. Outside of Ryan Braun, Aoki’s .361 on-base percentage and .293 batting average rank tops among all Brewers regular starters. He’s been the epitome of a contact-hitter at the plate, hardly ever getting cheated during an at-bat and moreover putting the ball in play to all corners of the field.
In a Brewers lineup that’s labored to stay productive and disciplined on offense this season, Aoki’s bat will have serious value as the season progresses. Who knows — it may even be enough to keep Milwaukee afloat in the logjam National League Central division race.
Corey Hart’s Versatile Bat Continues to Produce Power
One of the key contributors to Milwaukee’s historic postseason run last season, Corey Hart has had his own set of struggles this season, namely a palpable increase in strikeouts and subsequent decrease in walks. However, for as concerning as those numbers are, there are some positives to take away from his 2012 season.
First and definitely foremost, Hart’s power-swing has manifested itself in the form of some pretty gaudy numbers. This season, Milwaukee’s surrogate first-baseman holds true to a .249 ISO (isolated power) and .502 slugging percentage. The latter is just a shade under his .510 SLG from last season, however, the former presently ranks as a career-best.
Manager Ron Roenicke has placed Hart in a number of different spots in his lineup thus far this season, with most of his at-bats coming at the leadoff position or fifth in the order. If Hart continues to rake the way he has thus far this season, though, it won’t matter where he’s batting. His power-packed 2012 swing could help keep Milwaukee afloat in the second-half of the season.
Marco Estrada’s Comeback Gives Brewers Options at Back of Rotation, Bullpen
After filling in for the injured Chris Narveson early in the season as Milwaukee’s No. 5 starter and performing quite well during that stretch, Marco Estrada suffered a strained right quadriceps that currently has him on the disabled list. Now just over three weeks later, and it looks like he’s about ready to make his way back into the rotation.
According to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, Estrada threw a bullpen session last Sunday and participated in a simulated game on Tuesday. Manager Ron Roenicke was quoted as saying that Estrada is “doing pretty good.” For a team that’s been taxed with injuries this season, Estrada’s soon-to-be comeback gives the Brewers options at the back end of the rotation.
Not only will Estrada have the capacity to be an every-fifth-day starter, but he’ll also have the ability to make the transition to the bullpen if need be. Prospect Mike Fiers performed well in place of Estrada while he was on the disabled list, and that should be able to give Roenicke more options with respect to his back-end starter as the season progresses.
The Brewers will be heavily-dependent on their pitching as the season progresses. Estrada’s return should help to keep Milwaukee afloat in the postseason hunt.
Road Woes from 2011 Haven’t Carried over to 2012
As complete a team as the Brewers were last season, their biggest downfall was quite possibly their inability to play as efficiently on the road as they did at home. This season, that hasn’t been nearly as much of a problem, despite being five games under .500.
At this juncture last season, Milwaukee topped the division at an impressive 38-29 mark with the best home winning percentage (.735) in all of baseball. Yet they weren’t nearly the same team on the road, posting a 13-20 mark away from Miller Park. Despite everything that’s transpired so far this season, they’ve managed a 16-17 mark at home and 12-17 mark on the road of which includes a four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Their overall record has been nothing to write home about, but the fact is that the Brewers have out-performed what many had expected of them on the road coming into the season. Should that trend continue, it will certainly help their chances at staying afloat in the playoff hunt.
Reds, Pirates, Cardinals Aren’t Running Away with the Division…Yet
The laundry list of injuries that the Brewers have had to cope with this season has been truly amazing. Even more amazing, though, is that they’re only five and a half games out of first place at this juncture of the season, and that reality is a big reason that the Brewers should stay afloat in the postseason hunt as the season progresses.
As it stands, the Reds (34-27), Pirates (32-29) and Cardinals (31-31) currently top Milwaukee (28-34) in the standings, with the Astros (26-35) and Cubs (21-41) nestled comfortably in the cellar of the division. Despite being fourth in the division at the moment, the Brewers find themselves in a pretty good position. Only in the AL East division is there an more favorable discrepancy between the first-place and fourth place team.
If the Brewers are able to stay at the very least relatively close to the division leaders as the season progresses, odds are they’ll be in good position to make a late-season run comparable to what the Cardinals accomplished last season.
Despite His Struggles, John Axford Is Still Striking People out
Since becoming Milwaukee’s full-time closer at the start of last season, John Axford has developed a reputation for being one of the most dominant ninth-inning pitchers in baseball thanks to an array of gaudy statistics. But as any Brewer fan would tell you, it’s his peerless strikeout rate that’s become his most valuable tool.
While the 29-year-old born-and-bred Canadian has witnessed a shocking lapse in production across the board this season — most notably his ERA, which has jumped to an underwhelming 4.37 this season compared to an MLB-best 1.95 last season — his strikeout abilities have actually improved.
In 24 games (22.2 IP) this season, Axford boasts a strikeout rate of 30.8% and K/9 ratio of 13.1. A lot of that success stems from the effectiveness of his slider, which has garnered a whiff rate of 21.9% compared to the league average of 13.69%, according to Texas Leaguers. His mid-90s fastball and power-curveball have also seen slight increases in whiff rates this season.
The first priority of a power-type close such as Axford is to get batters out via the strikeout. So far this season, Axford has been tremendous in that respect. If that continues, the Brewers will be able to stay afloat in the division race.
Rickie Weeks Is Still Getting on Base — to Some Extent
Coming off his first trip to the mid-summer classic as the National League’s consensus top second baseman, Rickie Weeks looked to rebound from his 2011 postseason struggles by getting off to a hot start this season. For those of you who’ve lived under a rock for the last two months, that objective was not fulfilled.
Now roughly a month removed from the All-Star break, Weeks holds true to a career-worst strikeout rate of 28.9% and a slash line of .166/.305/.293 through 77 games. However, on the bright side, Milwaukee’s 29-year-old second baseman is at least getting on base.
Despite his unambiguous labors with the bat, Weeks has been somewhat impressive with plate discipline. Never really known for drawing a ton of walks, he currently boasts a career-best walk rate of 15.7% and a .305 on-base percentage. While the latter is well under the .334 OBP league average, the former is well-above the 8.8% walk rate league average.
The graph displays Weeks’ base-on-balls compared to the league average
The graph displays Weeks’ on-base percentage compared to the league average
Weeks has been anything but himself this year, but if there’s one positive to take away from his performance, it would be his ability to get on base relative to each at-bat. Should that improve even more so, it would greatly help Milwaukee’s chances to stay afloat in the postseason hunt.
Shaun Marcum Has Been a Horse on the Road
Fresh off an extremely productive inaugural season with Milwaukee, Shaun Marcum aimed to give Brewers fans more to cheer about early on this season. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it), just as last season, his best work has come away from Miller Park.
Last season, the tried veteran went 8-3 with a league-best 2.21 ERA on the road. This season, he’s off to another fast start, garnering a 2.84 ERA (3.11 FIP, 3.59 xFIP) while holding opponents to a awe-inspiring .217/.275/.333 slash line with a .270 wOBA. Moreover, Marcum has cut down on his walks some, holding true to a walk rate of 7.1% away from Miller Park.
If Marcum can continue to produce quality starts and be a rock-solid force on the mound, particularly away from Miller Park, then not only will it help keep Milwaukee afloat in the postseason race, but it will also guarantee him a big payday this winter.
Ryan Braun Has Been, Well, Ryan Braun
After putting up all-time great numbers en route to being named the National League’s Most Valuable Player last season, Ryan Braun faced colossal expectations heading into this season. Fortunately for Milwaukee, he’s answered his critics in impressive fashion.
This season, the catalyst to manager Ron Roenicke’s offensive lineup has managed a .310/.389/.587 line with a .277 ISO that would be a career-best if not for his scintillating rookie campaign. While his batting average and on-base percentage have slipped slightly from last season, his extra-base hitting abilities have been equally if not more remarkable than they were last season.
Needless to say, the Brewers will go only as far as Braun manages to take them. Aramis Ramirez has been an absolute bust out of the cleanup spot and has failed to give the reigning NL MVP any sort of protection, so Milwaukee’s success lies largely on Braun’s productivity. If he can continue to sustain his current slash line, the Brewers will have a great shot at staying afloat in the hunt for the postseason.
Zack Greinke Is Back to Cy Young Form
When the Brewers dealt a handful of their top prospects to the Royals in return for Zack Greinke, they envisioned that the youthful yet experience right-hander would produce equally to his indelible 2009 Cy Young Award-winning campaign. Almost halfway through his second season with Milwaukee, it seems they’re finally getting their return-on-investment.
In 13 starts this season, Greinke is 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA (1.98 FIP, 2.34 xFIP), striking out over 27 percent of all batters for a 10.1 K.9 ratio. A large portion of Greinke’s success this season stems from the effectiveness of his slider, which boasts a whiff ratio of 23.9%, according to Texas Leaguers, compared to the league average of 13.63%.
It’s no secret that Greinke has been one of the best and most valuable starters in all of baseball this season — he’s currently tied with Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander with a 3.0 WAR that tops all big-league starters. So if he’s able to produce anywhere near what he’s been able to accomplish thus far this season, the Brewers will have a puncher’s chance at a wild card spot or possibly even a division title.
Alec Dopp covers the Milwaukee Brewers as a featured columnist at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @alecdopp and read his blog, Brewers Rumors.
Norichika Aoki: Going Inside the Numbers
After splitting the first two games of a series that many fans, analysts and pundits probably considered to be a battle between two disappointing ballclubs rather than a competitive bout between to postseason hopefuls, the Milwaukee Brewers took the rubber-match of a three-game set with the Chicago Cubs this week by a 4-3 margin in extra-innings on Thursday. The win pushed Milwaukee to 26-31 this season, currently enough for fourth place in the National League Central division.
Brewers southpaw and struggling veteran starter Randy Wolf tossed 6.2 innings of solid ball, conceding just one run of which was not earned on four hits and two walks to just six strikeouts. Corey Hart, George Kottaras and Ryan Braun provided the offense for Ron Roenicke’s bunch, going a combined 4-for-11 with two runs batted in and a run scored. Of course, they weren’t the only players who broke out the lumber against the south-siders.
Former three-time Japanese batting champ and previously questioned offseason pickup Norichika Aoki went 3-for-5 with two home runs — including a walk-off line drive blast over the right-field wall that ended the game for the Brewers in the bottom of the tenth — which was enough to tally three runs scored and two runs batted in. Aoki’s staggeringly unexpected display of raw power on Thursday now gives the 30-year-old a slash line of .303/.357/.487 in 134 plate appearances this season. For an off-the-bench type player who’s slated to make exactly $1,000,000 this season, that’s pretty impressive.
Just what makes Aoki so effective as a hitter?
First and possibly even foremost, he just knows how to make contact with the baseball. This season, Aoki leads all non-injuired Brewers with a contact rate of 88.6% as well as a swining-strike rate of 4.6%, according to Fan Graphs. To put that into some perspective, both of those rates we just mentioned trump Ryan Braun’s contact rate of 80.1% and swinging strike rate of 9.5%. Moreover, compared to the current league average swinging strike rate of 8.8% and contact rate of 80%, it’s easy to see that Aoki’s bat has been well-above average from a pure bat-on-ball standpoint.
The chart below is a subtle attempt to provide an eye-friendly representation of how effective Aoki’s bat has been at making contact on a variety of pitches thus far this season.
|
Type |
Count |
Swing |
Whiff |
In Play |
|
FF |
204 |
42.6% |
3.4% |
18.6% |
|
FT |
107 |
42.1% |
3.7% |
21.5% |
|
SL |
87 |
46.0% |
9.2% |
20.7% |
|
CU |
51 |
33.3% |
5.9% |
21.6% |
|
CH |
47 |
44.7% |
10.6% |
25.5% |
|
SI |
34 |
29.4% |
5.9% |
11.8% |
For me, the biggest takeaway from this chart is that when Aoki swings, he rarely misses. The only pitches that one could say he “struggles” to make contact with would be the slider and changeup, however, generally speaking, those two whiff percentages are well above average compared to many hitters this season.
Probably the second-biggest lesson learned from this table has to be Aoki’s swing percent against curveballs and sinkers. Against the curveball up to this juncture of the season, he’s swinging at just 33.3 percent, and against sinkers, he’s pulling the trigger just 29.4 percent of the time. As we all (should) know, these can not only be two of the hardest pitches to hit, but they can also be two of the most difficult to not swing at. To put Aoki’s plate discipline against these pitches into some perspective we must compare and contrast. Joey Votto, arguably MLB’s most disciplined left-handed hitters right now, is swinging at just 33 percent of curveballs and 38 percent of sinkers.
A final way we can look at Aoki’s advanced approach at the plate is to look at his at-bat results. The graph below Aoki’s spray-chart this season.
While Aoki has struggled a bit with infield groundouts, we can conversely see that he has done a tremendous job in spreading the ball to all fields. And despite his falling-away slap-hit style of hitting that many believe should make him largely an opposite-field hitter, he’s been able to pull the ball into the right field corner more often then you’d think. On Thursday, Brewers fans were made aware of that fact with his multiple-home run affair over the right field wall.
In the midst of the palpable stuggles of many Brewers hitters this season, Aoki has come in and has done a magnificent job for manager Ron Roenicke off the bench. He’s been an extremely disciplined hitter at the plate and rarely gets cheated in an at-bat, and that in turn has helped Milwaukee remain relevant in the divisional postseason race.
But, really, should we be surprised?
Alec Dopp covers the Milwaukee Brewers as a featured columnist at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @alecdopp and read his blog, Brewers Rumors.
Milwaukee Brewers, Victor Roache Expected to Come to Terms on Contract
For those who thought the Milwaukee Brewers would take their time in getting their newly drafted players under contract, you were sorrily mistaken.
According to Jaymes Langrehr of 1250 WSSP and Disciples of Uecker, first-round Brewers — No. 28 overall — draft pick Victor Roache is expected to travel to Milwaukee today to undergo a mandatory physical and reportedly sign his new contract. Here’s exactly what Roache told to Langrehr:
“I’m coming into Milwaukee Thursday to get my physical and sign a contract, do the press conference and all that. You know, because of my injury from my college season, it was possible I might get shipped off to Phoenix and then start rehabbing, or I might come back home and find someplace here to rehab. Once I get my hand and wrist back fully 100%, they’re going to ship me off and we’ll start playing,” Roache said.”
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’sTom Haudricourt tweeted yesterday that the Brewers are close to deals with many of their early draft picks. Per Haudricourt’s twitter page:
#Brewers scouting director Bruce Seid on signing draft picks: "We're real close with a lot of the top guys."
—
Tom (@Haudricourt) June 07, 2012A junior at Georgia Southern University, Roache sat out most of his 2012 campaign with a broken wrist from which he is still reportedly rehabbing from. He expects to compete in a few fall/winter leagues this offseason, potentially the Arizona Fall League.
Roache has garnered a reputation for being an extremely hard-working type player, and as we profiled him earlier this week in our draft scouting reports, he has tremendous potential, particularly at the plate. He led the nation as a sophomore in 2011 with 30 home runs and put up an impressive .326/.438/.778 slash line with an absurd .452 ISO in 281 plate appearances. The Brewers took a calculated risk in drafting him, but in the words of amateur scouting director Bruce Seid, believe he is a “premier, power-type guy.”
We will continue to update contract negotiations and signings in subsequent hours.
Alec Dopp covers the Milwaukee Brewers as a featured columnist at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @alecdopp and read his blog, Brewers Rumors.
2012 MLB Draft Results: Grading, Scouting Every Milwaukee Brewers Selection
Cal Poly outfielder Mitch Haniger will come into his first season as a sleeper-type prospect. However, don’t be fooled: He can flat out play.
On Monday night, the Milwaukee Brewers took to the first round and supplemental first round of Major League Baseball’s 2012 first-year player draft armed with three selections, where they paired a highly touted prep positional player with two already established collegiate outfielders.
Then, on Tuesday, the Brewers switched their attention to rounds to the later rounds of the Draft, where general manager Doug Melvin and amateur scouting director Bruce Seid tried to work their magic by picking up a number of sleeper prospects. Rounds 16-40 of the Draft are set to take place Wednesday.
What players did the Brewers draft and what capabilities do they bring to the table? Let’s find out by scouting every player from rounds one through 15.
*We will continue to update picks as they are made available.
Final #Brewers first round predictions: No. 27 - Clint Coulter, No. 28 - Victor Roache. Not sure what happens in supplemental rnd. #MLBdraft
—
Alec Dopp (@alecdopp) June 04, 20121.27: Clint Coulter, C, Union HS (Wa.)
Position: C
Height/Weight: 6’3″, 210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Overview: A physical specimen by any standards, Clint Coulter came into the first round of the Draft as one of the best pure high school hitters in the country.
The stocky yet surprisingly agile 6’3″, 210-pounder from Washington has tremendous raw power that he’s able to tap into on a consistent basis. He has a nice, short swing with little wasted movement that draws a lot of power.
Scouts like what they see in Coulter from behind the plate. Based off what I’ve seen, he has some quick feet and good reaction time as a catcher and has a nearly plus-average arm to compliment it. Coulter told reporters at the Draft how he compares his game to that of Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann. I see absolutely no reason to disagree with that belief.
Grades (Future)
Hit: 55 (65)
Power: 60 (65)
Speed: 50 (50/55)
Defense: 55 (60)
Arm: 60 (65)
Intangibles: 60 (60/65)
Overall Grade: B+
1.28: Victor Roache, Of, Georgia Southern
Position: OF
Height/Weight: 6’2″, 225
Bats/Throws: R/R
Overview: A strong, athletic outfielder whose bat is probably closer to Major League-ready than just about any other positional player in this class, Victor Roache should be considered a steal for the Brewers at No. 28 overall. The Georgia Southern slugger has plus power, great plate discipline and versatility as a defender in the outfield.
As a sophomore for the Eagles, Roache belted 30 home runs to lead the nation and posted an absurd .452 ISO in 281 plate appearances. Though he’s missed a large chunk of this season, he’s still established himself as one of the top sluggers in this year’s class. Defensively, Roache has versatility. Though he doesn’t have barn-burning speed, I believe he does have the range, instincts and arm to play any outfield position.
Grades (Future)
Hit: 55 (65)
Power: 60 (65)
Speed: 50 (50)
Defense: 50 (50/55)
Arm: 55 (55)
Intangibles: 55 (55/60)
Overall Grade: B+
1.38: Mitch Haniger, Of, Cal Poly
Position: OF
Height/Weight: 6’2″, 215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Overview: A stocky, lean and athletic outfielder who’s been on scouts’ radar since his freshman year at Cal Poly, Haniger staked his claim as one of the more intriuging prospects in this year’s class after putting up a .346/.438/.626 slash line in 259 plate appearances this season. However, his impressive statistical yield is by no means why the Brewers drafted him early on.
Haniger has a very good approach to hitting and is the complete package at the plate. He has plus-average bat speed that generates consistent line drive power to all fields. Moreover, Haniger has pretty good plate discipline and recognizes pitches well. Speed doesn’t really play much into his approach at the plate and it doesn’t in the field, either. He does have a strong arm that could fit well in center field or right field depending on the need.
Grades (Future)
Hit: 60 (65)
Power: 60 (65)
Speed: 50 (50)
Defense: 50 (50/55)
Arm: 55 (60)
Intangibles: 60 (60)
Overall Grade: A-
2.92: Tyrone Taylor, CF, Torrance HS (Ca.)
photo credit: mnginteractive.com
Position: OF
Height/Weight: 6’0″, 185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Overview: The Brewers got an up-close-and-personal look at Taylor during the 2011 Area Code Baseball games, where he suited up for Milwaukee and put on an impressive showing in all facets of his game. The Cal Poly commit proved that he’s a very capable hitter with some pop to his bat and that he has a serious need for speed.
Easily his best tool, Taylor uses his agile abilities both on the bases and in the field. He gets out of the box extremely quick to try and extend hits and probably has the potential to steal around 30-35 bases a year in the bigs. He covers a lot of ground in center field, as well, with many scouts seeing him as a plus-defender at that position. Good value pick here.
Grades (Future)
Hit: 50 (55)
Power: 50 (55)
Speed: 65 (70)
Defense: 55 (65)
Arm: 50 (55)
Intangibles: 50 (50/55)
Overall Grade: B
3.122: Zach Quintana, RHP, Arbor View HS (Nv.)
Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 5’11″, 180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Overview: The first pitcher taken by the Brewers comes as a prepster from the Nevada ranks, though clearly not as highly touted as many other high school righties in this year’s class. There is, however, some things to like about what he brings to the table.
While he doesn’t have the ideal length you look for from a young high school starter right now, there probably is some room to growth, which definitely works to Quintana’s benefit. Using a very smooth, effortless motion, he’s able to run his fastball into the low 90s, topping out at 94 on rare occasion. The best part about his heater is that it has very good movement and should develop into a strikeout pitch in the future. His second-best offering is his curveball that has some nice, hard-breaking 11-5 dive to it.
Grades (Future)
Fastball: 50 (60)
Curveball: 50 (60)
Mechanics: 55 (60)
Command: 50 (55)
Control: 50 (55)
Overall Grade: C+
4.155: Tyler Wagner, RHP, Utah (Ut.)
Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6’3″, 195
Bats/Throws: R/R
Overview: A three-year pitcher for the Utes, Wagner was strictly used relief situations and performed modestly throughout. In 99 career innings of work out of the bullpen, the Las Vegas, Nevada native posted a 2.72 ERA while striking out just under a batter per inning. The only trouble was, he struggled to command his pitches. And those struggles manifested themselves throughout his junior season.
The prototype right-hander walked nearly six batter per nine innings pitched and conceded over ten hits in as many innings. I’m not too sure what Melvin likes about Wagner having drafted him with a relatively high pick. No matter the reason, Wagner will need to work on refining his pitches in the minors from the get-go if he’s destined for the bigs.
Grades (Future)
Fastball: 50 (55)
Slider: 50 (60)
Mechanics: 50 (55)
Command: 50 (55)
Control: 45 (55)
Overall Grade: C
5.185: Damien Magnifico, RHP, Oklahoma
Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6’1″, 195
Bats/Throws: R/R
Overview: One of Oklahoma’s primary relievers as well as a fill-in starter this season, there’s really nothing too fancy about what Magnifico brings to the table. The 6’1″, 195-pound Texas native has a Tyler Thornburg-like build to him and a fastball that rivals that of Thornburg’s. Magnifico can run his four-seamer up to triple digits when needed but the pitch is incredibly flat and lacks movement. He can also throw a slider but it’s a well below-average offering.
There’s a bit of a medical risk here, as well. I’ve been told that Magnifico had screws inserted in his elbow during his days in junior college. It should be interesting to see how he copes with that in the near future.
Still only 21 years old, Magnifico should have enough time to develop his secondary pitches in the minors. You can’t teach velocity like Magnifico’s, so he should have a chance at a relief opportunity at the big league level. I like this pick.
Grades (Future)
Fastball: 50 (65)
Slider: 40 (50)
Mechanics: 50 (50/55)
Command: 45 (50/55)
Control: 40 (50)
Overall Grade: B-
6.215: Angel Ortega, SS, Colegio Hector Urdaneta
Position: SS
Height/Weight: 6’2″, 160
Bats/Throws: B/R
Overview: An Alabama State commit, Ortega came into the 2012 Draft having been one of the more underrated international prep infielders, though I’m not too sure why. He has tremendous natural range defensively and should already be considered a plus-defender at this juncture.
Ortega has a ways to come as a hitter, especially with respect to his power. However, his youthfulness portends that he could still bulk up a bit and tap into his power potential. Either way, this is a good pick as Brewers were extremely thin on shortstops down on the farm.
Grades (Future)
Hit: 50 (55)
Power: 40 (45/50)
Speed: 55 (65)
Defense: 60 (65)
Arm: 55 (60)
Intangibles: 50 (55)
Overall Grade: C
Rounds 7-15
7.245: David Otterman, LHP, British Columbia University – The Brewers have had much success in drafting players north of the boarder, and Otterman could be another steal. His 6’3″, 215 pound frame portends he could be a power-type lefty out of the bullpen.
8.275: Edgardo Rivera, CF, Adolfina Irizarry De Puig HS – Though still very raw and a bit undersized, Rivera has deadly speed that he applies on the bases and in the field. Once he develops his hitting, his ceiling will be tremendously high.
9.305: Alejandro Lavandero, RHP, Belen Jesuit High School – The 6’3″, 180-pound Miami native has a prototype build to him that scouts like. His delivery will need some cleaning up and refinement of his pitches will be key.
10.335: Anthony Banda, LHP, San Jacinto College North (Tx.) – The young southpaw has grown into his current 6’3″, 175 pound frame noticeably in each of the past two years. If he continues, who knows how high his ceiling could be.
11.365: James Gainey, RHP, United States Naval Academy (Md.) – Gainey works over the top through a very smooth delivery on the bump. Doesn’t throw enough of his body into his pitches yet, so I think there’s some projectability to his fastball.
12.395: Eric Semmelhack, RHP, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee – A Wisconsin native, Semmelhack has a very nice pitcher’s build at 6’5″, 230 comparable to current Brewers prospect Jimmy Nelson.
13.425: Alan Sharkey, 1B, Coral Springs HS (Fl.) – The slightly undersized first baseman managed a .435/.562/.710 slash line as a high school senior in the highly competitive Florida prep ranks.
14.455: Ryan Gibbard, RHP, Lynn University (Fl.) - A power-pitcher’s body at 6’2″, 205, Gibbard works slowly and uses an almost effortless motion on the mound. His fastball has some projection, currently topping out in the low 90s.
15.485: Buck Farmer, RHP, Georgia Tech – The 6’4″, 220-pounder has done a magnificent job for the Yellowjackets this season and was at one point projected to be a second round pick. An absolute steal for Melvin and company.
Rounds 16-40
16.515: Adam Giacalone, 1B, Neosho County CC (Ks.)
17.545: Alfredo Rodriguez, SS, Maryland – A four-year starter for the Terps, Rodriguez has blazing speed that undoubtedly grades out as plus right now. He doesn’t have much power, but he’s shown to be a gap-type power to all fields. A nice pickup here in the late goings of the draft.
18.575: Hunter Adkins, RHP, Middle Tennessee State – The 6’3″, 175 pounder has struggled to command his pitches during his collegiate stay. He has the frame to succeed at the big league level but has a long ways to go with respect to his pitches.
19.605: Carlos Garmendia, 3B, Monsignor Edward Pace HS (Fl.) - Athletic and strong at 6’2″, 195, Garmendia has a pretty well rounded approach at the plate. He has strong hands and a swing with little wasted movement. Will need some time to refine his defensive mechanics but a solid pick here overall.
20.635: Michael Garza, SS, Georgetown – Garza, a two-year contributor for the Hoyas, put up an impressive .393/.433/.616 line in 53 games this season. Has some speed to his game, average power at the moment with room to grow in that area.
21.665: Austin Blaski, RHP, Marietta College (Oh.) -
22.695: Taylor Wall, LHP, Rice - Working primarly as a reliever for Rice this season, Wall posted a 3.02 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in 28 appearances. He won’t strike out a lot of guys but he knows how to work around batters with plus control of his pitches.
23.725: Paul Eshleman, C, Cal State San Bernadino -
24.755: Michael Turay, C, Cal State Stanislaus -
25.785: Lance Roenicke, LF, UC Santa Barbara – Most of Roenicke’s playing time in college came this season, and he didn’t disappoint. Harboring a .822 OPS and extra-base hit rate of 35.4% in 210 at-bats, his power grades out as average right now but there’s room for growth without question.
26.815: Mark McCoy, LHP, Barnegat HS (NJ)
27.845: Tyler Duffie, RHP, TCU
28.875: Martin Viramontes, RHP, USC - A five-year college pitcher, the 6’5″, 225-pound Viramontes doens’t possess any eye-opening tool. He knows how to strike guys out but by that same token also struggles with walks. Tough to distinguish how the Brewers plan to move him through the system.
29.905: Bryan Saucedo, 1B, Malvern Collegiate Institute
30.935: Jonathan Armold, RHP, Flagler College (Fl.)
31.965: Brent Suter, LHP, Harvard – A power-type frame at 6’4″, 200 pounds, Suter was used as a starter in college, and he performed well. He’s shown to command his pitches and that he has the stuff to strikeout a few batters. However, he leaves the ball over the plate too much and consequently gives up the long ball on a far too often basis.
32.995: Nick Anderson, RHP, Mayville State University
33.325: Austin Hall, RHP, Brigham Young - It’s interesting that he’s listed as a pitcher, as he’s logged just one innings of college ball during his stay at BYU while performing pretty well as a left-side infielder. His best tool right now is clearly his speed.
34.1055: Tommy Burns, RHP, Don Bosco Prep HS (NJ)
35.1085: Jose Sermo, SS, Bethany College (Ks.)
36.1145: Taylor Smith-Brennan, SS, Edmonds CC (Wa.)
37.1115: Alex Mangano, C, Southwest Miami HS, (Fl.)
38.1175: Christopher Shaw, C, Holy Trinity Academy - Another round, another catcher for the Brewers. Shaw has an average arm from behind the plate and has a pretty good bat to complement it. Extremely quick hands and a nice level swing at the plate to all fields.
39.1205: Derek Jones, CF, St. Marguerite D’Youville SS
40.1235: Carles Vazquez, C, American Senior HS (Fl.)
Alec Dopp covers the Milwaukee Brewers as a featured columnist at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @alecdopp and read his blog, Brewers Rumors.
2012 MLB Draft Results: Scouting Milwaukee Brewers First Round Picks Clint Coulter, Victor Roache
On Monday night, the Milwaukee Brewers took to the opening round of the 2012 MLB first-year player draft with high intentions of revamping their farm system with young talent. Owning two first-round picks at No. 27 and 28 overall for the second consecutive year, the Brewers took full advantage of the opportune hand they were dealt, drafting high school catcher Clint Coulter with their first pick of this year’s draft and college bat Victor Roache with the final opening-round pick.
Tune into Brewers Rumors tomorrow morning for a fully-fledged scouting report on Coulter and Roache.
Alec Dopp
